German professor Carlo Masala predicts Russia will annex Belarus by June 2030 in his bestselling book "If Russia Wins", projecting Moscow's expansion following Ukraine territorial seizure and Estonia military operations.
The European Union will not ease sanctions against the Lukashenka regime, according to EU sanctions envoy David O'Sullivan.
Russia and Belarus conducted joint nuclear exercises in May, integrating Belarusian forces into Moscow's nuclear command structure and deploying tactical nuclear weapons on NATO's eastern border, undermining Belarus's non-nuclear status and regional stability.
Belarusian President Lukashenka claims receiving a Trump meeting invitation while the U.S. eases sanctions and released over 500 political prisoners, potentially repositioning Belarus away from Russian military dependence and strengthening NATO's eastern flank.
Belarus is quietly building its military capacity amid rising tensions with Ukraine and deepening defense cooperation with Russia.
The Trump administration eased sanctions on Belarus's potash sector after the country released political prisoners, while simultaneously supporting American farmers threatened by Iran war-induced fertilizer shortages, strategically expanding Belarus's geopolitical leverage.