Rare earth supply disruption
Tracking: Rare earth supply disruption
Days without new evidence carry forward the prior day’s posterior. Each visible inflection is a Bayesian update triggered by ingested evidence — see the stream below for per-nudge reasoning.
- ↓ −0.02Refining cobalt in Cobalt, Ont.? That's the plan for this northern Ontario town
The article discusses the development of a new cobalt refinery in North America, which could potentially reduce reliance on overseas supplies and mitigate the risk of supply disruptions for certain critical minerals.
Jun 27, 04:00 · posterior → 35% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Marcos to visit Canada next week for talks with PM Carney
The article mentions discussions on cooperation in critical minerals, which could potentially lead to increased trade and investment, thereby reducing the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.
Jun 26, 11:58 · posterior → 36% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Europe wants a new Plaza Accord for China – seriously?
The article mentions the EU's desire to reduce dependence on foreign supply of critical minerals, which includes rare earths, and implies potential trade tensions with China, a major supplier, which could lead to supply disruptions.
Jun 26, 08:30 · posterior → 37% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Beijing offers a poisoned chalice. Carney shouldn’t drink from it
The article highlights the hybrid war between China and the West, including China's use of state subsidies and potential sabotage, which could disrupt global supply chains, including rare earth supplies.
Jun 26, 06:00 · posterior → 38% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02First hydropower projects in Great Britain in 40 years given go-ahead
The article discusses Great Britain's efforts to reduce reliance on energy imports and increase use of renewable energy, which could potentially decrease demand for rare earths used in traditional energy technologies.
Jun 26, 05:18 · posterior → 36% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Indonesia, Switzerland sign metals downstreaming pact
The agreement between Indonesia and Switzerland to cooperate on metals downstreaming, including minerals, may help diversify and strengthen supply chains, reducing the likelihood of rare earth supply disruptions.
Jun 26, 04:06 · posterior → 36% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Energy minister to name 5 priority power-line projects for federal backing today
The article mentions the British Columbia-Yukon grid connect project supporting the critical minerals sector, which could potentially increase the supply of rare earth elements by facilitating their extraction and processing.
Jun 26, 04:00 · posterior → 36% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Dateline chairman backs US gold, rare earths push with $1.95M bet
The article suggests increased investment and development in US-based rare earth projects, which could potentially increase rare earth supply and reduce the likelihood of a supply disruption.
Jun 25, 22:38 · posterior → 37% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03EU pitches Brazil a ‘more beneficial’ rare earths deal than US or China
The article suggests that the EU's proposed partnership with Brazil could lead to increased refining capacity and domestic processing of rare earths, potentially reducing the risk of supply disruptions.
Jun 25, 17:37 · posterior → 36% · dispatch - ↓ −0.04Argentina joins Pax Silica: what changes for investments in rare earths, lithium, and copper
The article suggests that Argentina's joining of Pax Silica, an alliance aimed at securing the supply of critical minerals, may help reduce dependence on China and promote more stable and secure supply chains for rare earths.
Jun 25, 14:57 · posterior → 38% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02China expo highlights supply chain resilience
The article highlights China's efforts to stabilize global supply chains, which could reduce the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption, given China's significant role in the global rare earth market.
Jun 25, 13:38 · posterior → 37% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Milei’s ‘Super RIGI’ investment bill approved by lower house
The article discusses a new investment incentive bill in Argentina that targets industries such as the processing of critical minerals, which could potentially increase the global supply of rare earth elements and reduce the likelihood of a supply disruption.
Jun 25, 08:26 · posterior → 36% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02‘Looming dangers’ under China-US ties: AI and rare earths reveal a fragile floor
The article highlights the fragile relationship between the US and China, which are major players in the rare earth market, suggesting potential disruptions to supply chains.
Jun 25, 06:29 · posterior → 40% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Multinational firms on China: We can't be separated
The article suggests that decoupling from China is not an option, which could increase dependence on China for rare earth supplies and thus increase the risk of a supply disruption.
Jun 25, 06:27 · posterior → 37% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Barkly cranks up 10,000m rare earths drilling in NT Gulf
The article reports on a company increasing its rare earths drilling efforts, which could potentially lead to an increase in rare earth supply, thereby decreasing the probability of a supply disruption.
Jun 25, 03:07 · posterior → 39% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Barkly cranks up 10,000m rare earths drilling in NT Gulf
The article reports on a company increasing its rare earths drilling efforts, which could potentially lead to an increase in rare earth supply, thereby decreasing the probability of a supply disruption.
Jun 25, 03:07 · posterior → 40% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Chinese scientists create ‘safe’ lithium battery that works well even after overheating
The development of a new, safer lithium battery technology could potentially reduce dependence on rare earth elements used in traditional battery production, thereby slightly decreasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.
Jun 25, 02:19 · posterior → 39% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Executive Committee of Egypt Mining Forum 2026 Holds First Meeting
The article mentions Egypt's efforts to unlock its mineral wealth, including critical minerals, which could potentially increase the global supply of rare earth elements and reduce the likelihood of a supply disruption.
Jun 25, 02:15 · posterior → 40% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Chinese FM calls for early normalization of Hormuz shipping
The article suggests that China is working towards stabilizing global industrial and supply chains by promoting the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could indirectly reduce the likelihood of rare earth supply disruptions.
Jun 24, 20:34 · posterior → 40% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02India, U.S. note ‘substantial progress’ on trade deal talks as U.S. Trade Representative Greer ends two-day visit to Delhi
The article mentions discussions on supply chain resilience and building trusted supply chains, which could potentially reduce the risk of rare earth supply disruptions if a trade agreement is reached.
Jun 24, 09:20 · posterior → 41% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03China offers rewards for reporting rare earth export control violations
China's tightened oversight and reward system for reporting export control violations may lead to reduced rare earth exports, potentially disrupting global supply chains.
Jun 24, 08:07 · posterior → 43% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Indonesia remains safe haven for investment amid turmoil: Airlangga
The article suggests Indonesia's stable economy and investment environment may attract manufacturers, potentially reducing the risk of supply chain disruptions, including those affecting rare earth supplies.
Jun 24, 07:49 · posterior → 41% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Indonesia targets US$121 billion EV battery investment push
The article suggests Indonesia is investing heavily in developing its own EV battery ecosystem, which could reduce reliance on rare earth supplies from other countries, thereby decreasing the likelihood of a supply disruption.
Jun 24, 06:03 · posterior → 42% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Japan says that China has detained 2 of its citizens suspected of smuggling banned items
The detention of Japanese citizens suspected of smuggling rare earths and the existing tensions between Japan and China may escalate trade restrictions, potentially disrupting rare earth supplies.
Jun 24, 05:50 · posterior → 44% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Indonesia eyes battery recycling to sustain EV growth
The article discusses Indonesia's efforts to develop battery recycling and waste management systems, which could help recover valuable minerals and reduce the demand for primary rare earth supplies.
Jun 24, 05:32 · posterior → 41% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Indonesia pushes circular economy for EV battery industry
The article discusses Indonesia's efforts to transition towards a circular economy for EV battery production, including recycling, which could potentially reduce the demand for primary rare earth materials and thus decrease the likelihood of a supply disruption.
Jun 24, 05:11 · posterior → 43% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02EU and China need a grand bargain to avoid a trade war
The article suggests a potential grand bargain between the EU and China, which could lead to increased cooperation and reduced tensions, thereby decreasing the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.
Jun 24, 04:30 · posterior → 43% · dispatch - ↑ +0.022 Japanese held in China over alleged rare earths smuggling
The detention of Japanese nationals in China over alleged rare earths smuggling may strain relations between the two countries and potentially disrupt rare earth supply chains.
Jun 24, 04:04 · posterior → 44% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03China hits back at US 'ban' on its tech companies with sanctions on 10 American firms
The article reports China's sanctions on American rare earth companies, which could potentially disrupt the global rare earth supply chain.
Jun 24, 00:41 · posterior → 41% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02India lauds Iran-US MoU, Doval warns of emerging threats
The article mentions the potential removal of supply chain bottlenecks and improved energy security due to the Iran-US MoU, which could indirectly positively impact rare earth supply chains.
Jun 23, 19:22 · posterior → 41% · dispatch
This threat’s probability started at the prior — a base rate from historical data and expert elicitation. Every dispatch scored against the threat nudges the probability via Bayesian update. The visible chart is the posterior evolving with each piece of evidence. Confidence interval tightens as evidence count grows. Read the full approach at /about/methodology.