GeoMemo
SUN, AUG 30 · EDT
Threat BoardeconomicRare earth supply disruption
economicUpdated Aug 30, 15:27 EDT

Rare earth supply disruption

Tracking: Rare earth supply disruption

Current probability
57%
7-day move
-0.8pp
30-day move
+13.7pp
Confidence interval
5657%
Evidence count
20,690
Countries involvedChina
Probability history · last 90 days90 daily points · 20,690 total nudges
0%25%50%70%100%prior 40%Jun 2Jun 17Jul 2Jul 17Aug 1Aug 16Aug 30

Days without new evidence carry forward the prior day’s posterior. Each visible inflection is a Bayesian update triggered by ingested evidence — see the stream below for per-nudge reasoning.

Evidence stream?Evidence streamEach row is one dispatch scored against this threat. Direction + magnitude = how the Bayesian update moved the probability. Reasoning is what the AI engine saw in the article that justified the nudge — auditable, not a black box.latest 30 of 20,690
  1. +0.02Decoding Geopolitics Behind The China – Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC)

    The article highlights China's interest in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which includes rare earth mines, suggesting that China may be taking steps to secure its rare earth supply, but also potentially increasing the risk of disruption to global rare earth supplies if the corridor is impacted.

    Aug 30, 05:02 · posterior → 57% · dispatch
  2. −0.02US, Cameroon outline $7 billion commercial investment pipeline

    The article mentions investments in critical minerals, including a $500 million rutile project and a cobalt-nickel-manganese project, which could potentially increase the supply of rare earth minerals and reduce the likelihood of a supply disruption.

    Aug 29, 07:10 · posterior → 59% · dispatch
  3. +0.02A16z launches $1.1bn fund for AI hardware

    The article highlights the growing demand for advanced technologies, including processors and other hardware, which may lead to increased pressure on rare earth supply chains, thus slightly increasing the probability of a disruption.

    Aug 29, 04:10 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  4. −0.03Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, and Peru create alliance to exploit critical minerals

    The creation of an alliance between Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, and Peru to exploit critical minerals, including lithium and copper, is likely to increase the stability and reliability of their supply, thereby decreasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 29, 03:24 · posterior → 56% · dispatch
  5. −0.02AI-driven space tech poised for investment boom, $100-200 bn opportunity worldwide: Report

    The article mentions asteroid mining and off-Earth manufacturing as potential sources of rare materials, which could potentially reduce reliance on traditional rare earth supplies and thus decrease the probability of a supply disruption.

    Aug 29, 01:29 · posterior → 57% · dispatch
  6. +0.035 global challenges facing the world in 2026 and their impact on Africa

    The article mentions the potential for increased competition and tension over access to critical minerals, including rare earths, which could lead to supply disruptions.

    Aug 28, 23:59 · posterior → 59% · dispatch
  7. −0.02China pushes for APEC free trade area agreement

    The article discusses China's push for a free trade area agreement in the Asia-Pacific region, which could lead to increased trade cooperation and reduced barriers, potentially decreasing the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 22:02 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  8. −0.02Trump’s tariff tantrum, geopolitical turmoil could be blessings in disguise for Manitoba’s diversified economy

    The article mentions Canada's potential to increase its sovereignty over critical minerals, including rare earths, which could reduce dependence on other countries and decrease the likelihood of a supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 16:58 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  9. −0.02Trump Blocks Some Foreign-Made Grid Equipment in U.S. Citing ‘National Emergency’

    The article suggests that the US is taking steps to reduce its dependence on foreign-made equipment, including those that may contain rare earth elements, which could decrease the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 16:05 · posterior → 57% · dispatch
  10. +0.02Trump Targets Foreign Technology in New U.S. Power Grid Security Order - Security Affairs

    The article highlights the US government's concern over dependence on foreign suppliers for critical components, which includes rare earths, and the potential for geopolitical tensions or trade disruptions to cut off supply, thereby slightly increasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 14:18 · posterior → 59% · dispatch
  11. +0.02Mr. Trump, Take the Golden Road to Samarkand

    The article highlights the growing competition between the US and China in Central Asia, a region rich in critical minerals, which could lead to increased tensions and potentially disrupt rare earth supply chains.

    Aug 28, 14:16 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  12. +0.02Trump Targets Foreign Technology in New U.S. Power Grid Security Order

    The article highlights the US government's concern over dependence on foreign suppliers for critical components, which includes rare earth elements, and takes steps to restrict transactions with foreign entities, potentially straining global supply chains and increasing the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 14:00 · posterior → 60% · dispatch
  13. +0.02The G20 needs more carrots to rebalance away from China

    The article discusses the need to derisk from China and diversify supply chains, which could lead to increased tensions and potentially disrupt rare earth supplies, given China's dominance in the market.

    Aug 28, 13:36 · posterior → 59% · dispatch
  14. −0.02Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru sign pact to boost cooperation on strategic minerals

    The article reports on a pact between South American countries to boost cooperation on strategic minerals, which could potentially increase the global supply of these minerals and reduce the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 12:44 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  15. −0.02SA and Brazil seek expanded market access - Freight News

    The article mentions cooperation between South Africa and Brazil on critical-mineral supply chains, which could potentially increase the stability and diversity of rare earth supplies, thereby decreasing the probability of a disruption.

    Aug 28, 09:10 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  16. −0.02Con RIGI: a lithium project secured $700 million in financing through BID Invest

    The article reports on a significant investment in a lithium project, which is a critical mineral, and the expansion of production capacity, potentially increasing the global supply of lithium and related minerals, thereby slightly decreasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 05:00 · posterior → 59% · dispatch
  17. +0.02Free market has become geopolitical, and Europe is falling behind - IO+

    The article highlights Europe's dependence on foreign technology and raw materials, including from China, a major rare earth supplier, which increases the vulnerability to supply disruptions.

    Aug 28, 04:26 · posterior → 59% · dispatch
  18. +0.03Iran Has Shown That Supply Chain Resilience Is No Longer Enough

    The article highlights the vulnerability of global supply chains to disruptions, specifically mentioning rare-earth processing as one of the concentrated resources at risk, which increases the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 04:21 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  19. +0.05The conditions that allowed the economy in Europe to grow have disappeared - von der Leyen - Inbox.lv

    The article highlights the EU's high dependence on China for rare earth elements, which could be used as a means of pressure, thereby increasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 02:03 · posterior → 60% · dispatch
  20. +0.05The conditions that allowed the economy in Europe to grow have disappeared - von der Leyen - Inbox.lv

    The article highlights the EU's high dependence on China for rare earth elements, which could be used as a means of pressure, thereby increasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 02:03 · posterior → 61% · dispatch
  21. −0.02Resource-rich countries seek a grand bargain - GIS Reports

    The article suggests that Africa, a region with significant rare earth reserves, is seeking to establish equitable partnerships with developed economies, which could lead to a more stable and secure supply of rare earth elements.

    Aug 28, 02:00 · posterior → 57% · dispatch
  22. +0.02As the world fragments, Singapore plans to build more partnerships - Nation Thailand

    The article mentions the fragility of supply chains and the risks of excessive dependence on one supplier, which could apply to rare earth supplies, thereby slightly increasing the probability of a disruption.

    Aug 28, 01:59 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  23. −0.02Posco trains local talent in Argentina to win lithium labor race - CHOSUNBIZ - Chosunbiz

    The article suggests that Posco is investing in local talent in Argentina to secure lithium supplies, which could help stabilize the supply chain and reduce the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 01:26 · posterior → 57% · dispatch
  24. −0.02Posco trains local talent in Argentina to win lithium labor race - CHOSUNBIZ - Chosunbiz

    The article suggests that Posco is investing in local talent in Argentina to secure lithium supplies, which could help stabilize the supply chain and reduce the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 01:26 · posterior → 60% · dispatch
  25. −0.02India-Canada Economic Ties Can Support More Stable Global Growth: Sitharaman

    The article mentions potential cooperation between India and Canada in critical minerals, which could help strengthen supply chains and reduce dependence on limited global suppliers, thereby slightly decreasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 28, 00:54 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  26. −0.02PM Modi on 4-day visit to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic - what's on agenda

    The article mentions discussions on trade and investment in critical minerals, including rare earths, between India and Uzbekistan, which could potentially lead to increased cooperation and reduced likelihood of supply disruptions.

    Aug 27, 22:03 · posterior → 61% · dispatch
  27. −0.02India expresses readiness for treaty talks with Canada, eyes Rs 4.65 lakh crore trade

    The article mentions India and Canada's discussion on cooperation in critical minerals, which could lead to a more diversified and reliable supply chain, thereby slightly decreasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 27, 19:36 · posterior → 60% · dispatch
  28. +0.03Nvidia Earnings: Yorkville CEO cites memory, labor bottlenecks

    The article mentions that critical minerals, including rare earths, represent a bottleneck for AI data center growth, with estimates suggesting they could require 3% of today's global rare-earth demand by 2030, which slightly increases the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 27, 17:57 · posterior → 60% · dispatch
  29. −0.03Modi Central Asia Tour Signals Aggressive Indian Geopolitical Realignment

    The article suggests India's efforts to secure critical minerals, including rare earths, through diplomatic engagements in Central Asia, which could potentially reduce the likelihood of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 27, 06:49 · posterior → 58% · dispatch
  30. −0.02Critical Resources taps CSIRO for battery tech scale-up

    The article discusses a new battery manufacturing technology that could potentially reduce reliance on rare earth materials, thereby slightly decreasing the probability of a rare earth supply disruption.

    Aug 27, 02:58 · posterior → 56% · dispatch
Prior · Posterior
Prior
40%
base rate before evidence
Posterior
57%
after 20,690 pieces of evidence
Methodology

This threat’s probability started at the prior — a base rate from historical data and expert elicitation. Every dispatch scored against the threat nudges the probability via Bayesian update. The visible chart is the posterior evolving with each piece of evidence. Confidence interval tightens as evidence count grows. Read the full approach at /about/methodology.