Bayesian Threat Board?How this worksEvery tracked threat has a current probability that moves with evidence. Each dispatch we ingest is scored against every threat; if it raises or lowers the odds of that threat materializing, it nudges the probability via Bayesian update (prior + evidence → posterior).
Confidence intervals tighten as evidence count grows. Not forecasting — continuous re-weighting of a claim against all available reporting.
Confidence intervals tighten as evidence count grows. Not forecasting — continuous re-weighting of a claim against all available reporting.
Every threat we’re tracking.
10 threats · 316,976 pieces of evidence contributing · 4 at ≥70% probability. Click any row for the full evidence stream + probability history.
10 threats shown
- 01Sudan humanitarian collapsehumanitarianSudan· 5,582 evidence89CI 89–90%→ +0.8pp7dElevated
Detail → - 02Global recessioneconomic· 7,193 evidence88CI 87–89%→ -1.1pp7dElevated
Detail → - 03Global food crisishumanitarian· 8,504 evidence82CI 81–83%→ +0.9pp7dElevated
Detail → - 04AI governance crisistechnology· 2,154 evidence71CI 69–73%↑ +5.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 05North Korea provocationsnuclearNorth Korea· 4,366 evidence66CI 65–67%→ +1.4pp7dModerate
Detail → - 06China-Taiwan military actionconflictChinaTaiwan· 16,549 evidence48CI 47–49%↑ +6.1pp7dModerate
Detail → - 07Middle East regional war expansionconflictIranIsraelLebanonYemen· 139,176 evidence39CI 39–39%↓ -40.5pp7dStable
Detail → - 08Iran nuclear escalationnuclearIran· 99,503 evidence31CI 31–31%↓ -40.6pp7dStable
Detail → - 09Rare earth supply disruptioneconomicChina· 12,055 evidence30CI 29–31%↓ -2.1pp7dStable
Detail → - 10Russia-Ukraine ceasefireconflictRussiaUkraine· 21,894 evidence12CI 12–13%↓ -2.9pp7dStable
Detail →
Methodology
Each tracked threat begins with a prior probability based on historical base rates and expert elicitation. New evidence — every dispatch scored against the threat — nudges that probability up or down. Bayesian posterior updates compound; confidence intervals tighten as evidence accumulates.
Read the full approach at /about/methodology. Individual threat pages show the full evidence stream including direction, magnitude, and the reasoning our AI engine used for each nudge.