Bayesian Threat Board?How this worksEvery tracked threat has a current probability that moves with evidence. Each dispatch we ingest is scored against every threat; if it raises or lowers the odds of that threat materializing, it nudges the probability via Bayesian update (prior + evidence → posterior).
Confidence intervals tighten as evidence count grows. Not forecasting — continuous re-weighting of a claim against all available reporting.
Confidence intervals tighten as evidence count grows. Not forecasting — continuous re-weighting of a claim against all available reporting.
Every threat we’re tracking.
10 threats · 396,789 pieces of evidence contributing · 5 at ≥70% probability. Click any row for the full evidence stream + probability history.
10 threats shown
- 01North Korea provocationsnuclearNorth Korea· 5,722 evidence85CI 84–86%→ ±0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 02Middle East regional war expansionconflictIranIsraelLebanonYemen· 170,054 evidence85CI 85–85%→ +1.4pp7dElevated
Detail → - 03Sudan humanitarian collapsehumanitarianSudan· 6,857 evidence81CI 80–82%→ +0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 04Iran nuclear escalationnuclearIran· 121,811 evidence80CI 80–80%↓ -9.6pp7dElevated
Detail → - 05AI governance crisistechnology· 3,210 evidence78CI 77–80%↑ ±0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 06China-Taiwan military actionconflictChinaTaiwan· 22,809 evidence67CI 67–68%→ +0.9pp7dModerate
Detail → - 07Global recessioneconomic· 8,866 evidence64CI 63–65%↑ +4.7pp7dModerate
Detail → - 08Global food crisishumanitarian· 11,008 evidence61CI 60–62%→ -1.9pp7dModerate
Detail → - 09Rare earth supply disruptioneconomicChina· 16,739 evidence47CI 47–48%↓ -4.0pp7dModerate
Detail → - 10Russia-Ukraine ceasefireconflictRussiaUkraine· 29,713 evidence14CI 14–14%↓ -6.8pp7dStable
Detail →
Methodology
Each tracked threat begins with a prior probability based on historical base rates and expert elicitation. New evidence — every dispatch scored against the threat — nudges that probability up or down. Bayesian posterior updates compound; confidence intervals tighten as evidence accumulates.
Read the full approach at /about/methodology. Individual threat pages show the full evidence stream including direction, magnitude, and the reasoning our AI engine used for each nudge.