Bayesian Threat Board?How this worksEvery tracked threat has a current probability that moves with evidence. Each dispatch we ingest is scored against every threat; if it raises or lowers the odds of that threat materializing, it nudges the probability via Bayesian update (prior + evidence → posterior).
Confidence intervals tighten as evidence count grows. Not forecasting — continuous re-weighting of a claim against all available reporting.
Confidence intervals tighten as evidence count grows. Not forecasting — continuous re-weighting of a claim against all available reporting.
Every threat we’re tracking.
10 threats · 493,629 pieces of evidence contributing · 6 at ≥70% probability. Click any row for the full evidence stream + probability history.
10 threats shown
- 01North Korea provocationsnuclearNorth Korea· 7,720 evidence86CI 85–87%↓ ±0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 02Middle East regional war expansionconflictIranIsraelLebanonYemen· 207,940 evidence81CI 81–81%↓ ±0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 03Iran nuclear escalationnuclearIran· 145,231 evidence79CI 79–80%↓ ±0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 04Sudan humanitarian collapsehumanitarianSudan· 8,708 evidence79CI 78–80%↓ ±0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 05Global food crisishumanitarian· 14,246 evidence77CI 76–78%↑ ±0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 06Global recessioneconomic· 10,503 evidence72CI 71–72%↑ ±0.0pp7dElevated
Detail → - 07AI governance crisistechnology· 5,216 evidence59CI 57–60%↑ ±0.0pp7dModerate
Detail → - 08China-Taiwan military actionconflictChinaTaiwan· 27,827 evidence46CI 45–46%→ ±0.0pp7dModerate
Detail → - 09Rare earth supply disruptioneconomicChina· 21,851 evidence37CI 36–37%↑ ±0.0pp7dStable
Detail → - 10Russia-Ukraine ceasefireconflictRussiaUkraine· 44,387 evidence10CI 10–11%→ ±0.0pp7dStable
Detail →
Methodology
Each tracked threat begins with a prior probability based on historical base rates and expert elicitation. New evidence — every dispatch scored against the threat — nudges that probability up or down. Bayesian posterior updates compound; confidence intervals tighten as evidence accumulates.
Read the full approach at /about/methodology. Individual threat pages show the full evidence stream including direction, magnitude, and the reasoning our AI engine used for each nudge.