Global recession
Tracking: Global recession
Days without new evidence carry forward the prior day’s posterior. Each visible inflection is a Bayesian update triggered by ingested evidence — see the stream below for per-nudge reasoning.
- ↑ +0.04Oil Prices Stay High as War Keeps Supply Tight Into 2027
The article suggests that high oil prices will persist into 2027 due to the ongoing war and tight supply, which could lead to increased production costs and decreased consumer spending, thereby increasing the probability of a global recession.
Oct 18, 00:03 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Thailand Banks Flood Study, Hospital Aid and Tax Treaty at IMF Meetings
The article highlights Thailand's fiscal discipline, low public debt, and plans for budget reform, which suggests a stable economic environment and reduces the likelihood of a global recession.
Oct 18, 00:00 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hyungil Holds 11 Rounds of Economic Diplomacy in Bangkok with Moody's and Others
The article reports that global rating agencies have reaffirmed Korea's sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, citing the country's strong semiconductor and AI sectors as offsetting concerns about slowing growth, which suggests a reduced likelihood of a global recession.
Oct 18, 00:00 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03AI boom risks market correction if productivity lags: Peter Berezin
The article discusses potential financial risks and market correction associated with the AI investment boom, and mentions a possible US recession in 2028, which suggests a slight increase in the probability of a global recession.
Oct 17, 23:30 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03AI Investment Boom Raises Cross-asset Risks as Capex Cycle Matures, Says BCA Research Strategist
The article highlights potential risks and concerns related to the AI investment boom, including overcapacity, margin compression, and a possible market correction, which could contribute to a global recession, particularly with a predicted significant risk in 2028.
Oct 17, 23:22 · posterior → 72% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02IMF Director Choi Jiyoung: South Korea Is the Only Country with Growing Fiscal Space
The article highlights South Korea's unique economic position with growing fiscal space, which suggests that not all countries are equally affected by global recessionary pressures, potentially mitigating the overall risk of a global recession.
Oct 17, 23:00 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04The IMF warns that the resilience of the global economy is weakening
The IMF's warning about the weakening resilience of the global economy, rising public debt, and potential risks from the AI market correction suggest a higher likelihood of a global recession, although the overall tone remains cautious rather than alarmist.
Oct 17, 22:58 · posterior → 72% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02AI debt, municipal bonds offer opportunities amid market volatility: Goldman Sachs
The article mentions the IMF's bullish call on India's growth forecast and highlights opportunities in credit markets, which suggests a positive economic outlook and reduces the likelihood of a global recession.
Oct 17, 21:01 · posterior → 67% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03France’s Debt Crisis: Why Europe’s Next Financial Test Could Begin in Paris
The article highlights France's growing public debt and fiscal deficits, which could lead to a loss of investor confidence and transmit financial pressure throughout the eurozone, potentially contributing to a global recession.
Oct 17, 21:00 · posterior → 68% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03AI investment logic shifts and chip sell-off hit markets: Nasdaq tumbles 2.15%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunges 3.83%
The article reports a significant decline in major stock indexes and a prolonged sell-off in the semiconductor sector, which could be indicative of a broader economic downturn and thus slightly increases the probability of a global recession.
Oct 17, 21:00 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02UK inflation can seal the deal on the BOE’s November rate hike
The article suggests that the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates in November, which could contribute to a global recession by tightening monetary policy and reducing economic growth.
Oct 17, 21:00 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04The Global Debt Crisis: Why Rising Borrowing Costs Threaten Economic Stability
The article highlights the growing global debt burden, rising refinancing costs, and vulnerabilities in the financial system, which increases the risk of a global recession due to reduced fiscal flexibility, higher capital costs, and uncertain growth prospects.
Oct 17, 21:00 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04Oil Prices Stay High as War Keeps Supply Tight Into 2027
The article suggests that high oil prices will persist due to the ongoing war and tight supply, which could lead to increased production costs, reduced consumer spending, and ultimately contribute to a global recession.
Oct 17, 19:00 · posterior → 72% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02IMF Offers Iraq Financial Support As US Sanctions On Iraqi Bank Trigger Depositor Crisis
The article reports on a depositor crisis in Iraq triggered by US sanctions, which could lead to financial instability in the region and potentially have a ripple effect on the global economy, thereby slightly increasing the probability of a global recession.
Oct 17, 12:01 · posterior → 64% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Richard Heart Arrested, XRP DAT Rings Nasdaq Bell, And More – Weekly Recap
The article mentions BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warning that halting U.S. data center construction could trigger recession, which directly relates to the threat scenario of a global recession.
Oct 17, 11:30 · posterior → 67% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03It's Y2K Again: Why Income Investments Win As The Fed Repeats A Dot-Com Error
The article suggests that the Fed's rate hikes may fail to curb oil prices and could lead to a recession, similar to the dot-com crash, which increases the probability of a global recession.
Oct 17, 10:30 · posterior → 66% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02FX Weekly: Changing of the Guard, From Boost to Drag
The article suggests that the AI boom, which had been supporting the US economy, is starting to wobble, and the dollar is becoming increasingly captive to the AI capex cycle, which could lead to a downturn in US growth and potentially contribute to a global recession.
Oct 17, 09:00 · posterior → 63% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Chip index SOX posts longest losing streak since 2008 as AI worries deepen
The article's report of a significant decline in the chip index, fueled by concerns over AI spending and rising financing costs, suggests a potential slowdown in the tech sector, which could contribute to a broader economic downturn, increasing the probability of a global recession.
Oct 17, 08:38 · posterior → 68% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02‘Countries are defying gravity’: how much longer can global economy resist chaos?
The article highlights the surprising strength of the global economy, with growth not falling off a cliff and stock markets not crashing, despite sky-high oil prices and geopolitical chaos, suggesting a lower probability of a global recession.
Oct 17, 06:00 · posterior → 63% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02India pushes rupee-based trade settlements to help countries facing hard currency shortages: FM
The article suggests India's efforts to promote rupee-based trade settlements could help sustain trade with countries facing foreign exchange constraints, potentially mitigating the impact of economic downturns and reducing the likelihood of a global recession.
Oct 17, 03:00 · posterior → 64% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Tourism alone can no longer carry Thailand’s economy, former TAT chief warns
The article highlights Thailand's economic weaknesses, including a structural slowdown in tourism and a weakening manufacturing sector, which could contribute to a global recession if other countries experience similar economic challenges.
Oct 17, 01:11 · posterior → 63% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Is Iran Running Out Of Money To Sustain The War? US Claims $25 Billion Oil Revenue Hit, $350 Million Crypto Freeze And Unpaid IRGC Troops
The article highlights the potential disruption to global oil supplies due to the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to increased oil prices and contribute to a global recession.
Oct 17, 00:05 · posterior → 67% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02US Stock Bull Market Enters Fifth Year: Can S&P 500 Withstand Rising Treasury Yield Pressures After Doubling?
The article suggests that the US bull market's extended duration does not necessarily signal an imminent downturn and that macroeconomic fundamentals, rather than the age of the bull market, have greater predictive value, which slightly reduces the probability of a global recession.
Oct 17, 00:02 · posterior → 66% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Economics Nobel: How this year’s winners helped to smooth the cycle of economic peaks and troughs
The article discusses the work of economists who developed models to reduce the length and depth of economic downturns, which suggests that policymakers have improved tools to mitigate the risk of a global recession.
Oct 17, 00:01 · posterior → 62% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03IMF with Bleak Global Forecast, Bulgaria's Economy Up 1%
The IMF's trimmed global growth forecasts and warnings of potential sharp deterioration in global activity if European policymakers do not take additional action contribute to an increased probability of a global recession.
Oct 16, 21:59 · posterior → 65% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03IMFC Statement
The article suggests that the global economy has proven surprisingly resilient and the euro area economy has shown broad-based growth, indicating a lower likelihood of a global recession.
Oct 16, 20:00 · posterior → 65% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Jobs report today: Hiring worse than expected in June amid elevated inflation
The article reports a slowdown in hiring and elevated inflation, which are indicators of a potentially weakening economy, increasing the probability of a global recession.
Oct 16, 13:47 · posterior → 64% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Investors often look to past election cycles for clues about market performance
The article mentions strong market gains despite higher energy costs and elevated interest rates, suggesting resilience in the market, which slightly reduces the probability of a global recession.
Oct 16, 13:04 · posterior → 62% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03IMF chief urges cooperation on AI and war risks, as US hails economic momentum
The article highlights multiple economic risks, including high inflation, rising interest rates, and potential growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, which suggests a slightly higher probability of a global recession.
Oct 16, 09:03 · posterior → 67% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03OPINION: France is hurtling towards a precipice of debt
The article highlights France's significant debt and fiscal issues, which could potentially destabilize the European economy and contribute to a global recession, thus slightly increasing the probability of this threat scenario.
Oct 14, 03:21 · posterior → 66% · dispatch
This threat’s probability started at the prior — a base rate from historical data and expert elicitation. Every dispatch scored against the threat nudges the probability via Bayesian update. The visible chart is the posterior evolving with each piece of evidence. Confidence interval tightens as evidence count grows. Read the full approach at /about/methodology.