Global recession
Tracking: Global recession
Days without new evidence carry forward the prior day’s posterior. Each visible inflection is a Bayesian update triggered by ingested evidence — see the stream below for per-nudge reasoning.
- ↓ −0.02RBA prepares for ‘fire drills’ to deal with the next COVID-like crisis
The article discusses the Reserve Bank's preparations for potential economic crises, including more aggressive interest rate cuts, which could help mitigate the impact of a recession.
Jun 28, 21:12 · posterior → 62% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02RBA prepares for ‘fire drills’ to deal with the next COVID-like crisis
The article discusses the Reserve Bank's preparations for potential economic crises, including more aggressive interest rate cuts, which could help mitigate the impact of a recession.
Jun 28, 21:12 · posterior → 63% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04Global recession and the end of the middle class: What ‘AI exuberance’ could do to the world
The article cites a warning from the Bank for International Settlements that the AI boom could create an international recession, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term.
Jun 28, 05:00 · posterior → 64% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04Global recession and the end of the middle class: What ‘AI exuberance’ could do to the world
The article cites a warning from the Bank for International Settlements that the AI boom could create an international recession, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term.
Jun 28, 05:00 · posterior → 63% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04Global recession and the end of the middle class: What ‘AI exuberance’ could do to the world
The article cites a warning from the Bank for International Settlements that the AI boom could create an international recession, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term.
Jun 28, 05:00 · posterior → 61% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03How long before Statistics Canada loses complete touch with the economy?
The article highlights the forecasting failure of Statistics Canada, which could lead to delayed or inaccurate detection of economic downturns, potentially increasing the risk of a global recession due to inadequate preparedness.
Jun 27, 06:00 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Who has profited most from the war on Iran?
The article highlights the economic disruption and uncertainty caused by the war on Iran, including soaring energy prices and disrupted global trade, which could contribute to a global recession.
Jun 26, 06:25 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Gold price crash explained: Why are gold rates falling and when will yellow metal recover?
The article mentions that the US economy's reduced sensitivity to oil shocks has helped contain downside growth risks, limiting recession fears, which suggests a lower probability of a global recession.
Jun 25, 10:13 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Hong Kong is world’s most unequal society for wealth distribution, study finds
The article highlights increasing wealth inequality in Hong Kong, which could contribute to reduced consumer spending and economic instability, potentially increasing the risk of a global recession.
Jun 25, 07:24 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Iran war pushes climate movement into action as it gathers in sweltering London
The article mentions the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its potential to cause fossil fuel shocks, which have historically led to recessions, thereby slightly increasing the probability of a global recession.
Jun 24, 11:56 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03The largest oil supply shock since 1973 and why the world, for now, resists without entering recession
The article suggests that despite the largest oil supply shock since 1973, the world economy resists entering recession due to increased efficiency in oil consumption and technological advancements acting as a partial buffer.
Jun 23, 23:02 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Ten years on, Brexit's economic impact is becoming clearer
The article highlights the negative economic impact of Brexit on the UK, including a significant reduction in exports, which could contribute to a global recession, although the effect is relatively small and indirect.
Jun 23, 19:07 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Gold erases 2026 gains in Egypt amid global market pressure
The article mentions growing expectations of US interest rate hikes, which could potentially slow down economic growth and increase the probability of a global recession.
Jun 23, 12:16 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Miners peg back FTSE 100 while mid-caps struggle
The article reports contraction in UK private sector activity and downturn in services sector, which are indicators of economic slowdown, thereby slightly increasing the probability of a global recession.
Jun 23, 12:09 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02ASX set to rise, SpaceX weighs on Wall Street; Former Fed chair Greenspan dies at 100
The article mentions mixed trading and a potential end to the war between the US and Iran, which could lead to lower oil prices and reduced inflation, thereby decreasing the probability of a global recession.
Jun 22, 15:18 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02ASX set to rise, SpaceX weighs on Wall Street; Former Fed chair Greenspan dies at 100
The article mentions mixed trading and the S&P 500 slipping, but also notes the Australian sharemarket is set to rise and the Dow Jones was up, indicating a relatively stable market, which decreases the probability of a global recession.
Jun 22, 15:18 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03This is the Australia that Pauline Hanson has been waiting for – a frightened country
The article mentions the possibility of a 'global depression' with share prices at 1929 levels, as stated by Donald Trump, which directly relates to the threat of a global recession.
Jun 22, 15:00 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03This is the Australia that Pauline Hanson has been waiting for – a frightened country
The article mentions the possibility of a 'global depression' with share prices at 1929 levels if Iran does not lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which directly relates to the threat of a global recession.
Jun 22, 15:00 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03This is the Australia that Pauline Hanson has been waiting for – a frightened country
The article mentions the possibility of a 'global depression' with share prices at 1929 levels if Iran does not lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which directly relates to the threat of a global recession.
Jun 22, 15:00 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02What today’s central bankers can learn from the late Alan Greenspan
The article highlights the importance of effective central banking and crisis management, as exemplified by Alan Greenspan, which could help mitigate the risk of a global recession if applied by current policymakers.
Jun 22, 10:39 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Warsh's gamble: A quieter Federal Reserve could mean volatile markets, higher rates
The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's reduced transparency and guidance under new chair Kevin Warsh could lead to more volatile markets and higher interest rates, which may contribute to a global recession.
Jun 22, 10:32 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03German chancellor claims cuts are the only solution as cities run out of money
The article highlights Germany's municipalities and states facing deepening deficits and the federal government's reluctance to provide additional funds, which could exacerbate economic instability and contribute to a global recession.
Jun 22, 09:53 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Pound dips as Keir Starmer exit rumours continue to grow
The article highlights Britain's economic woes, including high borrowing costs and anaemic growth, which could contribute to a global recession if other countries are similarly affected.
Jun 22, 03:06 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Gen Z earning more than millennials did at the same age, says thinktank
The article suggests a mini-rebound in pay packets for Gen Z, which could indicate a stronger labor market and potentially lower the probability of a global recession, although the threat of falling real wages and economic pressures are also noted.
Jun 22, 01:00 · posterior → 68% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02They were told Brexit would fix things. Instead Britain is set to get its seventh PM in a decade
The article highlights the ongoing political instability in the UK, which could contribute to economic uncertainty and potentially increase the risk of a global recession.
Jun 21, 15:10 · posterior → 68% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02They were told Brexit would fix things. Instead Britain is set to get its seventh PM in a decade
The article highlights the ongoing political instability in the UK, which could contribute to economic uncertainty and potentially increase the likelihood of a global recession.
Jun 21, 15:10 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02They were told Brexit would fix things. Instead Britain is set to get its seventh PM in a decade
The article highlights the ongoing political instability in the UK, which could contribute to economic uncertainty and potentially increase the risk of a global recession.
Jun 21, 15:10 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Iran’s resistance will have a systematic impact on US hegemony
The article suggests a decline in US global influence and hegemony, which could lead to instability in global markets and trade, potentially increasing the probability of a global recession.
Jun 21, 13:23 · posterior → 67% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Iran's steel industry stood at 43rd place in world
The article indicates Iran's steel industry is performing well despite global downturn, suggesting some economies are resilient to recessionary pressures.
Jun 21, 10:29 · posterior → 67% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02What to know about the legacy of Brexit, which still divides Britain 10 years on
The article highlights the negative economic impact of Brexit on the UK economy, which could contribute to a global recession, although the effect is relatively small and indirect.
Jun 21, 09:51 · posterior → 68% · dispatch
This threat’s probability started at the prior — a base rate from historical data and expert elicitation. Every dispatch scored against the threat nudges the probability via Bayesian update. The visible chart is the posterior evolving with each piece of evidence. Confidence interval tightens as evidence count grows. Read the full approach at /about/methodology.