Global recession
Tracking: Global recession
Days without new evidence carry forward the prior day’s posterior. Each visible inflection is a Bayesian update triggered by ingested evidence — see the stream below for per-nudge reasoning.
- ↑ +0.03Donald Trump is set to land in China for historic talks — and he's bringing an old friend
The article mentions China's concern about the prospect of a global recession due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which suggests that the situation is already being perceived as a potential threat to global economic stability.
May 12, 04:21 · posterior → 80% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Iran-Turkey trade should reach $30b: ICCIMA head
The article discusses increased trade cooperation between Iran and Turkey, which could have a slightly positive effect on the global economy, thereby decreasing the probability of a global recession.
May 11, 18:46 · posterior → 75% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04Businesses are facing rising costs during the Iran war, and economists expect more strains ahead
The article highlights rising costs for businesses due to the Iran war, potential downturns in hiring and investment, and decreased profit expectations, all of which contribute to a higher probability of a global recession.
May 11, 18:42 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03AI, Iran, rare-earth minerals: A real-time risk map for CEOs
The article highlights several risks, including Middle East tensions, rare earth reliance, and debt, which could contribute to a global recession, thereby slightly increasing its probability.
May 11, 18:11 · posterior → 77% · dispatch - ↑ +0.05Businesses are facing rising costs during the Iran war, and economists expect more strains ahead
The article highlights rising costs and recession concerns among business economists, with many expecting a downturn in hiring and investment, which suggests an increased probability of a global recession.
May 11, 18:07 · posterior → 78% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Energy Market Assessment: Consensus-beating growth + peace
The article reports consensus-beating growth, increased US hiring, and a decline in oil prices, all of which suggest a strong economy and reduce the likelihood of a global recession.
May 11, 18:04 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Swap Lines, Gulf Debt and the Unravelling of Dollar Primacy
The article discusses the potential unravelling of dollar primacy and the use of swap lines as a response to balance of payments crises, which could contribute to global economic instability and increase the probability of a global recession.
May 11, 18:03 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Despite The War With Iran The Global Economy Remains Resilient
The article suggests the global economy remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions and the ongoing conflict with Iran, indicating a lower likelihood of a global recession.
May 11, 18:03 · posterior → 74% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Wall Street giants push back Fed rate-cut outlook after resilient jobs data
The article mentions that Goldman Sachs economists lowered their estimate for the probability of a US recession over the next 12 months, suggesting economic durability rather than distress.
May 11, 18:03 · posterior → 72% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04Brewing Government Bond Market Crises
The article highlights unsustainable public finances in major economies, including the US and several European countries, which could lead to government bond market crises and potentially trigger a global recession.
May 11, 18:03 · posterior → 73% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Jeff Snyder’s Eurodollar System Breakdown: What’s Failing in 2026
The article discusses the potential instability of the eurodollar system, which plays a crucial role in global trade and capital flows, suggesting that its breakdown could contribute to a global recession.
May 11, 18:03 · posterior → 74% · dispatch - ↑ +0.08Conflict triggers oil price shock with regional supplies remain impaired
The article describes a significant oil price shock and supply scarcity due to the conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to acute demand destruction and have profound economic consequences, increasing the probability of a global recession.
May 11, 18:02 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Will the Iran crisis cause a global recession?
The article suggests a possible link between the Iran crisis and global recession, slightly increasing the perceived likelihood of the threat.
May 11, 15:30 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02America is experiencing a productivity miracle
The article suggests a productivity miracle in America, which could contribute to economic growth and reduce the likelihood of a global recession.
May 11, 15:04 · posterior → 75% · dispatch - ↑ +0.043 charts explain how the Iran war oil shock could impact the economy
The article discusses how the Iran war oil shock could impact the economy, including rising oil prices, increased inflation, and decreased consumer spending, all of which are factors that could contribute to a global recession.
May 11, 15:04 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Geopolitical risks trump trade tensions as biggest threat to Canadian economy, Bank of Canada survey finds
The article highlights increasing geopolitical risks and uncertainty in the Canadian economy, which could contribute to a global recession, although the impact is moderate and not drastic.
May 11, 15:02 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03ECB's Kocher: No need to delay rate hikes if energy prices don’t improve swiftly
The ECB's consideration of not delaying interest rate hikes despite potential economic risks, such as stagflation and prolonged conflict, may exacerbate economic tightening and increase the likelihood of a global recession.
May 11, 15:02 · posterior → 77% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02No internet for 73 days: Digital siege triggers layoffs, economic collapse in Iran
The article highlights the severe economic impact of Iran's internet blackout, which could potentially have ripple effects on the global economy and contribute to a global recession.
May 11, 14:05 · posterior → 78% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Experts warn PM change could push up UK government borrowing costs even higher
The article suggests that a potential change in UK leadership could lead to higher borrowing costs, which may contribute to economic instability and increase the risk of a global recession.
May 11, 12:14 · posterior → 80% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02SSE Composite Index: Shanghai Stocks Build on Post-Holiday Surge
The article reports a surge in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and improving macroeconomic indicators in China, suggesting a positive economic outlook that reduces the likelihood of a global recession.
May 11, 12:09 · posterior → 78% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq Hover Near Records; Dow Flat as Trump Rejects Iran Deal, Oil Jumps
The article mentions a potential oil shock and increased tensions with Iran, which could lead to higher energy prices and decreased economic growth, thereby slightly increasing the probability of a global recession.
May 11, 12:09 · posterior → 79% · dispatch - ↑ +0.05The Economics of Trump's War with Iran
The article highlights significant disruptions to global oil supplies and shortages in Asian countries, which could have a ripple effect on the global economy and increase the probability of a global recession.
May 11, 12:08 · posterior → 80% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Silver rallies to two-month high as US-Iran tensions boost haven demand
The article mentions escalating US-Iran tensions and rising energy prices, which could contribute to a global recession, but the overall impact is moderate and indirect.
May 11, 12:05 · posterior → 80% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Market Participants Survey—First Quarter of 2026
The survey results indicate a low probability of recession in Canada, with a median response of 25% chance of recession in the next 6-12 months, which suggests a relatively stable economic outlook and thus slightly decreases the probability of a global recession.
May 11, 12:03 · posterior → 79% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Madrid Has the Cure for Trump-Era Energy Shocks
The article discusses European governments' efforts to mitigate the impact of energy price shocks through targeted subsidies and tax cuts, which could help stabilize their economies and reduce the risk of recession.
May 11, 12:03 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Trump and Xi will struggle to strike a major economic deal
The article mentions that a failure to strike a major economic deal between the US and China could lead to a renewed trade clash, which may contribute to a global recession, as hinted by the reference to a worldwide recession looming a year ago.
May 11, 12:02 · posterior → 77% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03UK faces biggest fall in consumer confidence since start of Ukraine war, research suggests
The article reports a significant decline in UK consumer confidence, which could contribute to reduced spending and economic activity, increasing the likelihood of a global recession.
May 11, 10:11 · posterior → 78% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04UK Sheds 163,000 Jobs As Borrowing Costs Surpass Expert Estimates
The article reports significant job losses, surging borrowing costs, and economic contraction in the UK, which are indicators of a potential global recession, especially given the interconnectedness of economies and the mention of potential impacts on other countries.
May 11, 09:13 · posterior → 78% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Why Gold and Silver Are Rising as the Fed Cuts Rates
The article suggests the Federal Reserve is facing a policy dilemma due to stagflationary conditions, which could exacerbate economic stress and increase the likelihood of a global recession.
May 11, 09:04 · posterior → 79% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Why high government debt need not cause immediate concern
The article suggests that the private sector's reduced leverage and healthier balance sheets provide a more resilient foundation for the economy, making it less prone to credit-driven downturns.
May 11, 06:12 · posterior → 77% · dispatch
This threat’s probability started at the prior — a base rate from historical data and expert elicitation. Every dispatch scored against the threat nudges the probability via Bayesian update. The visible chart is the posterior evolving with each piece of evidence. Confidence interval tightens as evidence count grows. Read the full approach at /about/methodology.