Global recession
Tracking: Global recession
Days without new evidence carry forward the prior day’s posterior. Each visible inflection is a Bayesian update triggered by ingested evidence — see the stream below for per-nudge reasoning.
- ↓ −0.02Pursuing peace through diplomacy
The article suggests diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between the US and Iran are underway, which could potentially reduce tensions and decrease the likelihood of a global recession triggered by a major geopolitical crisis.
Aug 29, 21:07 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Despite a Strong Yuan and Booming Exports, China's Economy Is Festering Beneath the Surface
The article highlights China's struggling domestic economy, weak domestic demand, and slowing growth, which could contribute to a global recession if the Chinese economy, a key driver of global growth, continues to deteriorate.
Aug 29, 02:48 · posterior → 72% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03US and Canada locked in a trade war, fears of a recession lurk
The trade war between the US and Canada, with its potential to hurt businesses in both countries and lead to significant job losses, increases the probability of a global recession, although the impact is still relatively limited and regional.
Aug 28, 17:39 · posterior → 73% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02Lee Hsien Loong says Singapore must stay open as US redefines its global role - The Online Citizen
The article mentions that multilateralism is breaking down and trade dependencies are being weaponised, which could lead to increased trade tensions and protectionism, potentially contributing to a global recession.
Aug 28, 15:49 · posterior → 70% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Data & analytics solutions - Wood Mackenzie
The article discusses the global economy approaching a tipping point and includes a recession scenario, indicating a potential increase in the probability of a global recession.
Aug 28, 13:22 · posterior → 77% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Canadian economy recovers sharply in Q2 but shadow of US tariffs in future
The article reports a sharp recovery in the Canadian economy, with a 3.3 percent annualized growth rate in Q2, which suggests that at least one major economy is currently performing well, reducing the likelihood of a global recession.
Aug 28, 12:59 · posterior → 77% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Fed has 'work to do' if price rises don't ease for Americans, Warsh says
The article suggests the Fed may raise interest rates to combat inflation, which could slow economic growth and increase the risk of a global recession, although the impact is moderate and not drastic.
Aug 28, 11:15 · posterior → 83% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut: Bidding Farewell to Forward Guidance, Restoring Fed Discipline Between AI and Inflation
The article suggests that the Fed is taking a disciplined approach to monetary policy, focusing on data dependency and decision-making discipline, which could help maintain economic stability and reduce the risk of a global recession.
Aug 28, 11:10 · posterior → 75% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Debut: Ending Forward Guidance Amid AI and Inflation
The article suggests that the Federal Reserve is taking a disciplined and data-dependent approach to monetary policy, which could help to mitigate the risk of a global recession by maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation.
Aug 28, 11:04 · posterior → 74% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Six consequences of six months of war in Iran
The article mentions the war's disruption to global energy supplies and its impact on the global economy, including a lowered forecast for global economic growth, which suggests a slightly increased probability of a global recession.
Aug 28, 10:23 · posterior → 73% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Six consequences of six months of war in Iran
The article mentions the war's disruption to global energy supplies and the subsequent increase in oil prices, which has led to a downgrade in the International Monetary Fund's forecast for global economic growth, slightly increasing the probability of a global recession.
Aug 28, 10:23 · posterior → 77% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Canada's economy grew by 3.3% in the second quarter, showing sharp recovery
The article reports a sharp recovery in Canada's economy, which suggests a reduced likelihood of a global recession, although the impact is relatively small and limited to one country's economy.
Aug 28, 09:02 · posterior → 87% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Canada's economy has found its footing. But is it enough to survive the U.S. trade war?
The article reports Canada's economy growing at its fastest pace since 2004, with gains in roughly 90% of the economy, which suggests a reduced likelihood of a global recession, at least in the context of Canada's economic performance.
Aug 28, 09:02 · posterior → 72% · dispatch - ↓ −0.03Canada’s GDP rose 3.3% in Q2 with Q1 data changes showing bump, not dip
The article reports a strong GDP growth in Canada, revising previous concerns of a technical recession, which suggests a resilient economy and reduces the likelihood of a global recession.
Aug 28, 08:13 · posterior → 69% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Asheville becomes stage for G20 talks and local debate over stalled Helene recovery funds
The article mentions that the purpose of the G20 Finance Track meetings is to avoid a global recession through international coordination, which suggests that global leaders are taking proactive steps to prevent an economic downturn.
Aug 28, 07:42 · posterior → 81% · dispatch - ↓ −0.04Global Economy Absorbs Trade War, Iran Conflict, Bond Shock
The article suggests that the global economy has absorbed several significant shocks, including trade wars and conflict, with minimal impact on growth, which reduces the likelihood of a global recession.
Aug 28, 07:29 · posterior → 82% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02Integration into the SCO positively impacts Kyrgyzstan's economy – Zhayilov
The article reports on the positive economic impact of Kyrgyzstan's integration into the SCO, indicating strong economic growth and development in the region, which slightly reduces the likelihood of a global recession.
Aug 28, 06:12 · posterior → 78% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02For Techint, the stage of 'macro order' is exhausted in the face of China's advance and industrial recession
The article mentions industrial recession in relation to China's advance and a potential lack of competitiveness in Argentina, which could contribute to a global recession, although the impact is relatively minor and localized.
Aug 28, 04:30 · posterior → 89% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02French economy just manages to dodge recession as growth revised down - The Edge Singapore
The article indicates that the French economy has avoided recession, which slightly reduces the likelihood of a global recession occurring.
Aug 28, 04:13 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02French economy just manages to dodge recession as growth revised down - The Edge Singapore
The article indicates that the French economy has avoided recession, which slightly reduces the likelihood of a global recession occurring.
Aug 28, 04:13 · posterior → 76% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02French economy just manages to dodge recession as growth revised down
The article indicates that France's economy has avoided recession, which slightly reduces the likelihood of a global recession occurring.
Aug 28, 04:13 · posterior → 85% · dispatch - ↓ −0.02French economy just manages to dodge recession as growth revised down - The Edge Singapore
The article indicates that the French economy has avoided recession, which slightly reduces the likelihood of a global recession occurring.
Aug 28, 04:13 · posterior → 79% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03War against Iran plunges US army into severe financial crisis
The article suggests that the US military's financial crisis due to the war with Iran could have broader economic implications, potentially contributing to a global recession, although the connection is indirect and the impact is likely to be moderate at best.
Aug 28, 02:56 · posterior → 88% · dispatch - ↑ +0.02French presidential hopefuls lock horns for first debate
The article mentions France's economic trouble and the risk of recession, which could contribute to a global recession if France's economic issues spread or exacerbate existing global economic concerns.
Aug 28, 02:47 · posterior → 87% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03Has the Third World War already begun?
The article discusses the increasing fragility of global balance and the potential for escalating conflicts, which could lead to economic instability and increase the probability of a global recession.
Aug 28, 02:23 · posterior → 88% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03US to push economic pressure on Iran at G20 finance talks
The article highlights escalating trade tensions, economic pressure on Iran, and potential fractures in global economic cooperation, which could contribute to increased uncertainty and instability in the global economy, thereby slightly increasing the probability of a global recession.
Aug 28, 01:10 · posterior → 71% · dispatch - ↑ +0.04A Great Rebalancing Is Coming - Foreign Affairs
The article highlights the unsustainable nature of current global trade imbalances and the lack of a coordinated response to address them, increasing the likelihood of a painful adjustment that could lead to a global recession.
Aug 28, 00:00 · posterior → 87% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03US to push economic pressure on Iran at G20 finance talks
The article highlights escalating trade tensions, economic pressure on Iran, and potential fractures within the G20, which could contribute to global economic instability and increase the probability of a recession.
Aug 27, 23:36 · posterior → 87% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03US to push economic pressure on Iran at G20 finance talks
The article mentions growing worries about US debt levels, strained ties due to tariffs, and economic fallout from the US-Israel strikes on Iran, which could contribute to a global recession, albeit with a moderate and indirect impact.
Aug 27, 19:25 · posterior → 86% · dispatch - ↑ +0.03US to push economic pressure on Iran at G20 finance talks
The article highlights escalating trade tensions, economic pressure on Iran, and potential fractures within the G20, which could contribute to global economic instability and increase the probability of a global recession.
Aug 27, 18:31 · posterior → 86% · dispatch
This threat’s probability started at the prior — a base rate from historical data and expert elicitation. Every dispatch scored against the threat nudges the probability via Bayesian update. The visible chart is the posterior evolving with each piece of evidence. Confidence interval tightens as evidence count grows. Read the full approach at /about/methodology.