Two parallel escalations overnight. IRGC repositioning at Bandar-e-Jask tracks close to the 2019 posture; separately, the IAEA briefed allies on confirmed North Korean enrichment capacity expansion — the strategic implication is the same week's news cycle is now running two nuclear stories on parallel tracks.
Top stories
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IRGC forward repositioning at Bandar-e-Jask · Reuters / Iran state media, 14:22 UTC
Satellite confirms three C-class vessel relocations since Sunday. CENTCOM spokesperson declined to comment on operational posture; Tehran Times framed as "routine exercise."
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IAEA confirms DPRK enrichment expansion at Yongbyon · IAEA press note + Yonhap
Two new cascades operational since February per IAEA imagery. Weapons-grade capacity now ~2.8x 2024 baseline. Pyongyang offered no comment.
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Milei doubles down on Jerusalem embassy · La Nación / Clarín
Announcement paired with a $400M Israeli-tech investment wave. Kirchnerist bloc walked out of session; Cámara vote deferred to next week.
Conflict watch
Hormuz probability of maritime incident (30-day) revised upward to 0.38 (was 0.29). Oil futures closed +3.1% on the news.