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Brief›Conflicts

Naxal problem.

Critical · 86/100Insurgencyactive5,792 dispatches indexedlatest event Oct 24, 2026
Escalation
86
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-15 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
56
▼-90 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
India
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
4,327
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
INDIA-PAKISTANEARTHQUAKENAGA MAN2026-07-212026-09-052026-10-24
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
1,662
single-side data only
2026-07-202026-10-19323
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0Oct 17Naga man beheadedIN
9.0Oct 17Manipur violenceIN
9.0Oct 6C-60 OperationsIN
8.0Oct 18Kolkata StampedeIN
8.0Oct 18India StampedeIN
8.0Oct 17Clashes in ManipurIN
8.0Oct 17Kolkata StampedeIN
8.0Oct 17Kolkata StampedeIN
8.0Oct 17Flood Alert in TNIN
8.0Oct 17Manipur Ethnic ConflictIN
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Oct 15IN→INGSAT-7C· qty 1arms salecontracted
Sep 11RU→INSu-57arms saleproposed
Aug 30US→INJavelin All Up Round missile systemdefense pactproposed
Aug 28US→INJavelin anti-tank missile systemsarms salecontracted
Aug 28US→INJavelin anti-tank· qty 60arms salecontracted
Aug 28US→INJavelinarms saleproposed
Aug 25CN→INModel 32140 cellsarms salecontracted
Jul 15IN→IN7.62mm Gun Mod Kitsarms salecontracted
Jul 14IN→CNClopidogrel Bisulfate APIcritical tech transferannounced
Jul 9AU→INUraniumcritical tech transfercontracted
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs)Indiamanufacturing—43.0%
Potassium PermanganateIndiaprocessing—10.0%
Rare Earth Elements· Beach sands (monazite)Indiamining—0.7%
Rare Earth Elements· Gundlupet REE and Yttrium BlockIndiamining—0.7%
Rare Earth Elements· Karbi-Meghalaya PlateauIndiamining—0.7%
Rare Earth Elements· Monazite sandsIndiamining—0.7%
Rare Earth Elements· Nawatala DevigarhIndiamining—0.7%
Rare Earth Elements· NeyveliIndiamining—0.7%
Rare Earth Elements· Neyveli lignite complexIndiamining—0.7%
Rare Earth Elements· Neyveli Lignite CorporationIndiamining—0.7%
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off IN as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.