GeoMemo
WED, MAY 13 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Maguindanao del Sur ambush.

Critical · 75/100Insurgencyactive1,038 dispatches indexedlatest event May 12, 2026
Escalation
75
·Elevated · /100
Events · 24h
25
▼-7 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
40
▼-94 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
Philippines
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
1,899
total events across belligerents · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
WAR CRIMEASSASSINATIONWAR CRIME2026-02-122026-03-302026-05-13
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
98,970
single-side data only
2026-02-092026-05-1130,257
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0Apr 23ICC to confirm charges against DutertePH
10.0Apr 13Planned assassination of President MarcosPH
9.0Apr 24Child abuse network uncoveredPH
9.0Apr 23Murder of Jose SaribongPH
9.0Apr 23Manila Hostage CrisisPH
9.0Apr 19Online Child Exploitation Ring UncoveredPH
9.0Apr 17Roel Degamo murderPH
9.0Apr 16Jet Fuel Crisis in PhilippinesPH
9.0Apr 15Duterte plotted to stage a coupPH
9.0Apr 14Alleged Assassination Plot Against President MarcosPH
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
May 7JP→PHused Japanese destroyersarms saleproposed
May 5FR→PHfast patrol crafts (FPCs)· qty 40arms saleproposed
May 5→PHfast patrol crafts (FPCs)· qty 40arms saleproposed
Apr 17JP→PHParola-class patrol vessels· qty 10arms saledelivered
Apr 17IT→PHMultirole Acoustic Stabilized System (MASS) SX-424(V)122arms saledelivered
Apr 17IT→PHMultirole Acoustic Stabilized Systems (MASS) SX-424(V)122· qty 1arms saledelivered
Apr 17JP→PHTeresa Magbanua-class patrol vessels· qty 2arms saledelivered
Apr 17JP→PHnaval_vesselarms saleproposed
Apr 17JP→PHBeechcraft TC-90 King air advance trainer aircraft· qty 5arms saledelivered
Apr 16JP→PHmissile defense systemsarms saleproposed
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
critical mineralsPhilippinesprocessing—0.0%
Nickel· Laterite nickel depositsPhilippinesmining—0.0%
Nickel· Laterite nickel depositsPhilippinesprocessing—0.0%
NickelPhilippinesmining—0.0%
NickelPhilippinesprocessing—0.0%
ChromitePhilippinesmining——
ChromitePhilippinesprocessing——
CobaltPhilippinesmining——
CobaltPhilippinesprocessing——
Copper· Maalinao-Caigutan-Biyog (MCB) Copper-Gold ProjectPhilippinesmining——
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off PH as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.