Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
15,489
total events across belligerents · 94 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
12,078
8,605 India · 3,473 Pakistan
IndiaPakistan
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Manipur ethnic conflict remains at a critical escalation level (100/100), but the evidence pack contains no direct reporting on Manipur-specific hostilities or India-Pakistan belligerent actions related to this conflict in the last 48 hours. The absence of corroborating evidence prevents substantive analytic judgment on the current state of fighting in Manipur.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
May 10 — Vietnam President
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 14 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IN as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
