Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
510
total events across belligerents · 68 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
213
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US-Israeli war with Iran has entered a critical maritime-economic phase centered on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed. Iraq is a principal affected party — its crude exports are being rerouted through the Kurdistan pipeline while tankers carrying Iraqi oil transit Hormuz covertly with tracking systems disabled, suggesting tacit Iranian acquiescence and a fragile, informal arrangement that could collapse at any momen
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 1 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 18 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IQ as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
