Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
901
total events across belligerents · 89 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
16,349
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US-Israeli war with Iran has entered a critical maritime-economic phase centered on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed. Iraq is a principal affected party — its crude exports are being rerouted through the Kurdistan pipeline while tankers carrying Iraqi oil transit Hormuz covertly with tracking systems disabled, suggesting tacit Iranian acquiescence and a fragile, informal arrangement that could collapse at any momen
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 18 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IQ as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
