GeoMemo
SUN, AUG 30 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Darfur conflict.

High · 55/100Civil Waractive1,348 dispatches indexedlatest event Aug 29, 2026
Escalation
55
·Elevated · /100
Events · 24h
2
▼-3 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
27
▼-44 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
Sudan
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
1,469
total events across belligerents · 86 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
BATTLE2026-06-012026-07-142026-08-29
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
3,128
single-side data only
2026-06-012026-08-241,988
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Market signal · Gold
—
USD/oz · live data pending
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0Aug 26Sudan conflict escalationSD
10.0Aug 19El-Fasher CaptureSD
10.0Aug 17Sudan ConflictSD
10.0Aug 17El-Fasher CaptureSD
10.0Aug 17Sudanese Refugee CrisisSD
10.0Aug 14Sudan Humanitarian CrisisSD
10.0Aug 14RSF Capture El-FasherSD
10.0Aug 13Sudan Humanitarian CrisisSD
10.0Aug 13Sudan WarSD
10.0Aug 11Sudan ConflictSD
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Apr 17TR→SDTurkish-made dronesarms saleannounced
Apr 17→SDmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 17AE→SDmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 17CO→SDvehicletrainingannounced
Apr 17→SDmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 17AE→SDmunitionsarms saleannounced
Apr 16CN→SDsurface-to-air missile systemsarms saledelivered
Apr 15AE→SDmissilearms saledelivered
Apr 15→SDmunitionsarms saleannounced
Apr 15SA→SDmunitionsarms saleannounced
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Gold· Sudan Gold RefinerySudanrefining——
Top 1 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to Sudan · 1 active
humanitarian
Sudan humanitarian collapse
68%· 0.0pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off SD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.