Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
1,225
total events across belligerents · 78 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
3,285
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Catatumbo conflict remains at extreme escalation (100/100 on the conflict scale), but the evidence pack for the last 48 hours contains no direct reporting on Catatumbo hostilities, armed group activity, or displacement. The absence of coverage in a period scored at maximum escalation represents a critical data gap that prevents substantive analytic judgment.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Jul 27 — Colombia's president
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 6 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 10 dispatches across 7 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off CO as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
