Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
116
total events across belligerents · 44 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
0
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that there is no verifiable evidence in the current evidence pack of dissident republican activity, attacks, arrests, or security operations in the last 48 hours. The escalation score of 100/100 cannot be corroborated by available reporting; the evidence pack contains zero articles related to the dissident republican conflict in Ireland or Northern Ireland.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Oct 3 — Russian President Putin reitera
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 4 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 18 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IE as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
