GeoMemo
WED, MAY 13 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Operation Epic Fury.

Elevated · 44/100Waractive26,804 dispatches indexedlatest event May 11, 2026
Escalation
44
·Stable · /100
Events · 24h
3
·0 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
0
·no prior baseline
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
Kazakhstan
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
195
total events across belligerents · 55 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 3
WEAPONS TESTKAZAKHSTAN ERE2026-02-122026-04-162026-05-13
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
0
single-side data only
2026-02-092026-05-111
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
7.0Apr 30Kazakhstan eResidencyKZ
7.0Apr 22Russia halts Kazakh oil exports to GermanyKZ
7.0Apr 19Securing Kazakhstan's Highly Enriched UraniumKZ
6.0May 11Kazakhstan Cuts Russian PowerKZ
6.0May 9Kazakhstan TFP GrowthKZ
6.0May 8Kazakhstan-UAE TradeKZ
6.0May 4Kazakhstan pressuredKZ
6.0May 3Kazakhstan-India Uranium DealKZ
6.0May 3US-China RivalryKZ
6.0May 2Kazakhstan Tungsten DealKZ
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Apr 15US→KZBoeing aircraftarms salecontracted
KZ→low-enriched uraniumcritical tech transferproposed
KZ→low-enriched uraniumcritical tech transferproposed
KZ→low-enriched uraniumcritical tech transferproposed
KZ→USHEUcritical tech transferdelivered
KZ→USrare earth feedstockcritical tech transfercontracted
KZ→USrare earthscritical tech transfercontracted
KZ→low-enriched uraniumcritical tech transferdelivered
KZ→INnatural uranium concentrates (U₃O₈)critical tech transfercontracted
KZ→UShighly enriched uranium· qty 600critical tech transferdelivered
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Uranium· KazakhstanKazakhstanmining—38.0%
Uranium· Kazatomprom facilitiesKazakhstanmining—38.0%
UraniumKazakhstanmining—38.0%
Tungsten· Katpar and Upper Kairakty depositsKazakhstanmining—15.0%
Tungsten· Kazakhstan tungsten depositsKazakhstanmining—15.0%
Tungsten· Kazakhstan Tungsten projectKazakhstanmining—15.0%
Tungsten· Kaz ResourcesKazakhstanmining—15.0%
Tungsten· Northern KatparKazakhstanmining—15.0%
Tungsten· North KatparKazakhstanmining—15.0%
Tungsten· Severniy KatparKazakhstanmining—15.0%
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off KZ as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.