GeoMemo
FRI, MAY 15 · EDT
CountriesKazakhstan (KZ)

Kazakhstan.

Republic of Kazakhstan · Astana · 20.4M people · central-asia

Governmentpresidential republicLanguagesKazakh (official, Qazaq) 80.1%, Russian 83.7%Area2.7M km²Sanctioned entities75Active conflicts1Mentions 7d29 ▼ 22%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.

Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
80.0
Moderate risk
27-day trend
Intelligence briefNo brief published today
Daily intelligence brief is generated for the highest-activity countries. Kazakhstan becomes eligible as dispatch volume climbs.
Kazakhstan · 90-day event volume
203
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 12
ENERGY PROJECT2026-02-142026-03-312026-05-14
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Event timelineLast 7 days · 12 milestones · hover for context
MAY 13
2026
Kazakhstan, China Cooperation
diplomatic_visit · severity 2
Moderate
MAY 13
2026
Turkic Summit
summit_meeting · severity 2
Moderate
MAY 13
2026
Erdoğan-Tokayev Meeting
diplomatic_visit · severity 2
Moderate
MAY 12
2026
Gor in Central Asia
diplomatic_visit · severity 3
Moderate
MAY 11
2026
Kazakhstan Oil Price
economic_indicator · severity 4
Moderate
MAY 11
2026
Kazakh Oil Supply Disruption
economic_indicator · severity 5
Moderate
MAY 11
2026
Kazakhstan Cuts Russian Power
energy_project · severity 6
Elevated
MAY 10
2026
Italy-Kazakhstan Forum
diplomatic_visit · severity 3
Moderate
MAY 10
2026
KZ, GR on Great Victory
diplomatic_tension · severity 1
Moderate
MAY 9
2026
KZ, GR Emphasize
diplomatic_visit · severity 1
Moderate
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
40/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 1domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 100
Event Volatility
100/100 · 15% wt
target events: 1actor only events: 0domestic events: 0severe domestic: 0instability rate: 0.10%article coverage 90d: 793
Arms Activity
97/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 1total value usd: $7.00Bconflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
81/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: 5.00%inflation pct: 8.69%unemployment pct: 4.83%
Market Stress
79/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 70negative signals 30d: 15
Sanctions Exposure
85/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 75is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
77/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 74.5literacy rate:
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political
23Stable
Security
31Moderate
Economic
20Stable
Regulatory
15Stable
Operational
28Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Open the 90-day operational risk view →
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · Central Asia
Rank 2 of 6
01Russian Federation
47.8
02Republic of Kazakhstan· this country
80.2
03Turkmenistan
99.5
04Kyrgyz Republic
100.0
05Republic of Tajikistan
100.0
06Republic of Uzbekistan
100.0
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 18 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024
$291.5B
$29.6B YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024
$14.2K
$1.3K YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 2024
8.7%
5.8% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 2024
4.8%
0.0% YoY
Population
WB· 2024
20.6M
262.5K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 2024
0.43%
0.01% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 2024
74.5 yrs
0.1 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 2024
93.4%
0.5% YoY
Security12 recent events · 1 conflicts · 10 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
203
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
0
High-severity events
2026-05-13
SEV 2
Kazakhstan, China Cooperation
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-13
SEV 2
Turkic Summit
Summit Meeting
2026-05-13
SEV 2
Erdoğan-Tokayev Meeting
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-12
SEV 3
Gor in Central Asia
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-11
SEV 4
Kazakhstan Oil Price
Economic Indicator
2026-05-11
SEV 5
Kazakh Oil Supply Disruption
Economic Indicator
2026-05-11
SEV 6
Kazakhstan Cuts Russian Power
Energy Project
2026-05-10
SEV 3
Italy-Kazakhstan Forum
Diplomatic Visit
Active conflicts involving Kazakhstan
Operation Epic Fury
War · 26804 dispatches
Elevated · 43.8
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Critical Tech & Minerals

Astana Mining Congress to Highlight Kazakhstan’s Role in Critical Minerals - The Times Of Central Asia

Kazakhstan showcased its critical minerals significance at the Astana Mining Congress, emphasizing the nation's strategic importance in global supply chains for essential raw materials needed across technology and renewable energy sectors.

The Times Of Central AsiaKazakhstan
Geopolitical Economics
Kazakhstan and Türkiye Strengthen Strategic Alliance, Target $15 Billion in Trade
The Astana Times
International Relations
Erdoğan visits Kazakhstan for strategic partnership talks
Hürriyet Daily News
Geopolitical Economics
Kazakhstan targets US$52 billion in non-resource exports by 2030 amid major investment push
TV BRICS
Geopolitical Economics
Kazaks: ECB could hike if Oil surge deteriorates inflation expectations
FXStreet
OPEC Cuts 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast
Asharq Al-Awsat English
India, Russia Discuss Trade, Energy And Strategic Ties Ahead Of BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meet In New Delhi
Swarajyamag
Kazakhstan joins currency war as tenge dives after float| Gulf Times - Gulf Times
Gulf Times
India’s 100-giga watt nuclear ambition now has a uranium lifeline, and Kazakhstan just became a key piece of Asia’s energy map
Vozpopuli
Turkish president leaves for Kazakhstan to attend Turkic summit
TRT World
Think tanks · this country5 articles from research institutions tracking Kazakhstan
Middle East Institute
What Does the UAE’s Departure Mean for OPEC+?
The UAE ended its nearly 60-year OPEC membership in May 2024, citing production quota constraints that left it underutilizing capacity compared to peers, requiring OPEC+ to recalibrate strategy through membership expansion or increased production from existing members.
May 8, 2026
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Iran War Isn’t the Only Challenge Facing Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 has reduced economic dependence on oil but risks enriching elites while neglecting most citizens; ambitious megaprojects are stalling amid geopolitical tensions and resource constraints.
May 8, 2026
Atlantic Council
Breaking with OPEC, the UAE is now a free agent. What this means for markets and regional unity
The UAE withdrew from OPEC on May 1, citing production quota constraints that hindered its expansion plans to 5 million barrels daily by 2027, potentially allowing faster oil market rebalancing and attracting foreign investment while signaling broader regional political fragmentation.
Apr 30, 2026
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
Central Asia: Analysis, Research, & Events
CSIS experts analyze Central Asia's geopolitical significance as a crucial crossroads between Russia, China, and South Asia, examining how regional countries leverage energy resources and trade routes while navigating reform efforts amid persistent corruption and human rights challenges since 1991 independence.
Apr 25, 2026
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Infrastructure Trap: What Beijing Has Learned from Moscow’s Playbook in Central Asia
China is deepening infrastructure dependencies across Central Asia through Belt and Road Initiative investments in energy and digital sectors, mirroring Soviet-era tactics to gain geopolitical leverage over the region's five nations.
Apr 19, 2026
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Kazakhstan-tagged articles · last 30 days
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
personlast · May 13
96
Yermek Kosherbayev
personlast · May 9
46
Elena Rybakina
personlast · May 11
32
Bibisara Assaubayeva
personlast · May 4
16
Azamat Murzakanov
personlast · May 4
14
Nurlan Yermekbayev
personlast · May 8
13
Alexander Bublik
personlast · May 9
12
Alua Nurman
personlast · Apr 16
10
Kazakh Foreign Minister
personlast · May 7
8
Olzhas Bektenov
personlast · May 12
6
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
Related
Active conflicts
Operation Epic Fury43.8
+Methodology · how this profile is built

This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.

Coverage of Kazakhstan will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.