Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
3,186
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
4,076
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Central African Republic (CAR) civil war remains at an elevated escalation level, but the evidence pack contains no direct reporting on CAR or its principal belligerents' activities within the country during the past 48 hours. The escalation score of 100/100 cannot be corroborated or contextualized from available sourcing, representing a critical data gap.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Apr 19–20 — Russia proposed cyb
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 17 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off CF as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
