Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
90
total events across belligerents · 37 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
73
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · EUR/RUB
—
· live data pending
Russian currency pressure from sanctions
Other watched market signals · 3 additional
Brent CrudeBZ=F
European energy supply disruption
Wheat FuturesZW=F
Black Sea grain export blockade
Henry Hub Nat GasNG=F
LNG demand surge from EU pipeline cutoff
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Russia-Ukraine war remains at an extreme escalation level (100/100), but the evidence pack for the last 48 hours contains no direct reporting on the Russia-Ukraine theater. The available sources are dominated by the US-Iran war, global financial market dynamics, and technology competition, leaving a critical data gap on the principal RU-UA conflict.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Apr 28 — BlackRock Investment Institut
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 18 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off NO as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
