Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
1,225
total events across belligerents · 78 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
3,285
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Clan del Golfo–Disidencias de Calarcá conflict remains at a minimal observable escalation level. The evidence pack contains no verified events directly attributable to either belligerent in the last 48 hours; the single conflict-relevant event — an ambulance assassination in Briceño — lacks confirmed linkage to either armed group, and broader Colombia security indicators reflect ambient violence rather than a discrete escalation betw
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 6 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 29 dispatches across 14 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off CO as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
