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MON, JUN 29 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Sudan civil war.

Critical · 100/100Civil Waractive10,519 dispatches indexedlatest event Jul 1, 2026
52 sources·generated Jun 28, 2026·ICD 203?ICD 203 — Analytic TradecraftThe US Intelligence Community’s Intelligence Community Directive 203 standards: sourced claims, calibrated probability language, explicit confidence levels, alternative analysis. GeoMemo briefs follow this prompt.
Escalation
100
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-16 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
216
▲+91 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Side A
Sudan
Side B
South Sudan
Other principal actors
UAEEgyptChad
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
7,678
total events across belligerents · 93 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
WAR CRIME2026-03-312026-05-162026-07-01
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
10,811
10,558 Sudan · 253 South Sudan
SudanSouth Sudan
2026-03-302026-06-224,588
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Market signal · Gold
4096.30
▼ 3.03% / 7dUSD
Sudan is major African gold producer
Other watched market signals · 1 additional
USD/SDGUSDSDG
Sudanese pound collapse risk

Bottom Line

We assess with moderate confidence that the Sudan civil war remains at maximum escalation (100/100) with no near-term ceasefire prospect, despite new U.S. sanctions targeting conflict-enabling entities. The evidence pack is critically thin on ground-level developments inside Sudan; the single Sudan-specific event—new U.S. sanctions—represents external pressure rather than a shift in battlefield dynamics. The Bayesian probability of humanitarian collapse holds steady at 0.81.

##

Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0Jun 24Sudan refugee crisisSD
10.0Jun 24Sudan ConflictSD
10.0Jun 21El Fasher SiegeSD
10.0Jun 20Sudan Humanitarian CrisisSD
10.0Jun 19Sudan ConflictSD
10.0Jun 19Sudan DisplacementSD
10.0Jun 19War in SudanSD
10.0Jun 18Sudan Displacement CrisisSD
10.0Jun 17Sudan WarSD
10.0Jun 17Aid Delivery DisruptedSD
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
May 3US→AEAPKWSarms salecontracted
Apr 23UA→AEdronedefense pactcontracted
Apr 17CO→SDvehicletrainingannounced
Apr 17AE→SDmunitionsarms saleannounced
Apr 17TR→SDTurkish-made dronesarms saleannounced
Apr 17→SDmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 17→SDmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 17→EGdronetech transfercontracted
Apr 17AE→SDmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 16CN→SDsurface-to-air missile systemsarms saledelivered
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Critical Minerals and Rare EarthsUAEmining—0.0%
Aluminium· Al TaweelahUAEmanufacturing——
Aluminum· Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)UAEprocessing——
Aluminum· Gulf regionUAEprocessing——
CobaltUAEmining——
GoldUAEprocessing——
GoldUAErefining——
Gold· Sudan Gold RefinerySudanrefining——
GraphiteUAEprocessing——
NickelUAEmining——
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to Sudan · 1 active
humanitarian
Sudan humanitarian collapse
81%· 0.0pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 52 dispatches across 23 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off SD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.

Sources· 52 dispatches· 23 publications
  1. 1.© AP - Nasser Nasser — Amurka ta sanar da sabbin takunkumai akan ɓangarorin da ke yaƙi a Sudan
  2. 2.Al Jazeera — Iran war live: Air raid sirens in Bahrain, Kuwait as US bombs Sirik, Qeshm
  3. 3.South China Morning Post — Iran strikes Bahrain, Kuwait amid US offensive, straining ceasefire
  4. 4.The Hindu — U.S., Iran trade strikes putting new strain on West Asia truce
  5. 5.Saudi Gazette — US strikes Iranian targets after drone attack on cargo ship
  6. 6.South China Morning Post — Iran survived 3 months of war. Can it survive the aftermath?
  7. 7.Protothema — Συνεχίζονται οι συνομιλίες Ισραήλ-Λιβάνου: Στο επίκεντρο Ορμούζ, εκεχειρία και ιρανικές εντάσεις
  8. 8.CGTN — NGOs demand international action to avert 'atrocities' in Obeid
  9. 9.Al Jazeera — Who has profited most from the war on Iran?
  10. 10.The Independent — ‘Saddest day of my life’: Trump said immigrants were ‘eating pets.’ Now they’re bracing for deportation after ruling
  11. 11.Diario El Dia - — Se desmorona la tregua: EE UU e Irán se atacan y sube la tensión
  12. 12.Hindustan Times — Indian bulk vessel APJ Priti 2 carrying 65,000 MT fertiliser crosses Strait of Hormuz safely
  13. 13.The Independent — Dry, windy conditions fuel explosive wildfire growth across western US
  14. 14.The Hindu — Key points from U.S.-Israel-Lebanon agreement
  15. 15.Protothema — Παραπαίει η εκεχειρία στη Μέση Ανατολή: Το Ιράν απαντά στο πλήγμα των ΗΠΑ, «η βία θα αντιμετωπίζεται με βία» λέει ο Βανς
  16. 16.The Mirror — Iran war LIVE: US launches strikes on Iran after Trump warns 'you'll find out'
  17. 17.Efimerida Syntakton — Μέση Ανατολή: Τριγμοί στην εκεχειρία – Ιρανικά αντίποινα με πλήγματα σε αμερικανικούς στόχους
  18. 18.The Independent — Utah declares state of emergency as massive wildfire spreads across state
  19. 19.GMA News Online / News — US Supreme Court lets Trump end deportation protections for Haitians and Syrians
  20. 20.Clarin — 71 efectivos, seis equipos caninos y 84.000 libras de equipo de rescate especializado: así opera el "USA 2", el equipo de búsqueda y rescate del condado de Los Ángeles enviado a Venezuela por el trágico terremoto
  21. 21.The Hindu — How Trump’s posts on Iran zigzagged during the war
  22. 22.California — Mistrial declared in Palisades fire arson case, a stunning blow to feds
  23. 23.The Independent — Youth pastor accused of killing his wife at Zion National Park dies before court hearing
  24. 24.CGTN — US CDC raises Ebola response to highest level in DR Congo and Uganda
  25. 25.The Hindu — Senior U.S. officials frustrated by Machado bid to return to Venezuela after quakes: White House official
  26. 26.The Independent — What is heat stroke? The symptoms and signs to look for during a heatwave
  27. 27.Al Jazeera — DR Congo superfan denied US visa to support team at World Cup
  28. 28.The Independent — Flu outbreak at Texas Air Force base nears 300 cases amid change to vaccine policy by Hegseth
  29. 29.Tehran Times — New book documents US-Zionist war crime in Minab
  30. 30.Tehran Times — The blood of Minab: America’s war on Iran and the world’s silence
  31. 31.The Independent — Trump nominates new ICE director as detainee deaths in custody being investigated
  32. 32.The Hindu — UN rights chief calls for investigations into U.S. deaths in immigration custody
  33. 33.The Hindu — Indian firm, CEO among entities sanctioned by U.S. for ‘fuelling’ civil war in Sudan
  34. 34.Gulf News — UAE expresses deep concern over ongoing military escalation in El Obeid, Sudan
  35. 35.Egyptian Streets — China Grants Egypt Tariff-Free Access as Trade Gaps Remain
  36. 36.News | Egypt Oil & Gas — Cypriot FMC to Establish Mining Education, Training Center in Egypt
  37. 37.The Hindu — Iran attacks Bahrain, Kuwait following U.S. strikes, threatens to end talks to end war
  38. 38.News | Egypt Oil & Gas — Badawi Visits Damietta LNG Plant, Affirms Readiness for Cypriot Gas
  39. 39.Gulf News — UAE, US deepen AI and technology partnership at Pax Silica Summit
  40. 40.CGTN — From silk to solar, international journalists see Xinjiang firsthand
  41. 41.Times of India — 'Will be forced to militarily complete the job': Trump warns Iran after US strikes over 2nd ceasefire breach
  42. 42.Die Zeit — Iran-Krieg: Erneut US-Angriffe auf den Iran
  43. 43.The Hindu — Trump warns Tehran as U.S. military strikes ‘multiple targets’ in Iran
  44. 44.Dailynewsegypt — Egypt, Gulf states condemn Iranian drone attacks on Bahrain
  45. 45.Tehran Times — Even China and Iran need greater mutual trust
  46. 46.Gulf News — Dubai Customs unveils duty instalment plan, 80% cut on eligible fines to boost trade
  47. 47.Arabian Post — TAEF sukuk deepens Dubai debt market
  48. 48.Arabian Post — Lower oil risks lift UAE wealth outlook
  49. 49.Arabian Post — Dubai Holding eyes European data centre foothold
  50. 50.Arabian Post — Why a Growing Number of German-Speaking Founders Are Choosing Dubai
  51. 51.Dailynewsegypt — Egypt, Italy deepen tourism ties as arrivals surge 15%
  52. 52.Dailynewsegypt — Egypt’s military production ministry explores expanded partnership with SC Johnson