Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
6,422
total events across belligerents · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
3,479
3,128 Sudan · 351 South Sudan
SudanSouth Sudan
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Market signal · Gold
4529.90
▼ 2.04% / 7dUSD
Sudan is major African gold producer
Other watched market signals · 1 additional
USD/SDGUSDSDG
Sudanese pound collapse risk
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Sudan civil war remains at maximum escalation (100/100), with RSF drone operations from captured territory in North Kordofan and cross-border drone incursions from Ethiopia confirming active multi-front combat; however, the evidence pack is thin on Sudan-specific reporting, and the escalation score likely reflects cumulative severity rather than a discrete 48-hour spike.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Aug 24 — RSF forces
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 31 dispatches across 22 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off SD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
