Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
6,496
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
4 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
1,086
272 China, North Korea & Russia Alliance · 814 US & Indo-Pacific Allies
China, North Korea & Russia AllianceUS & Indo-Pacific Allies
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · USD/CNY
—
· live data pending
Trade war currency dynamics
Other watched market signals · 3 additional
SHCOMP000001.SS
Shanghai Composite — Chinese market sentiment
Semiconductor ETFSOXX
Chip export control impact
Rare Earth ETFREMX
Critical mineral supply chain risk
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the US-China cold conflict is intensifying primarily through proxy dynamics and economic friction rather than direct confrontation; the evidence pack is thin on bilateral US-China military events but shows China warning of nuclear conflict risks at Shangri-La, expanding industrial footholds in third countries, and facing economic headwinds that may constrain its posture. The 100/100 escalation score is not co
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 30 dispatches across 17 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off TH as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
