Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
9,426
total events across belligerents · 94 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
63
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · USD/CNY
—
· live data pending
Trade war currency dynamics
Other watched market signals · 3 additional
SHCOMP000001.SS
Shanghai Composite — Chinese market sentiment
Semiconductor ETFSOXX
Chip export control impact
Rare Earth ETFREMX
Critical mineral supply chain risk
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the US-China cold conflict is intensifying across technology, supply-chain, and diplomatic domains, with both sides erecting new barriers—China restricting AI-related exports while the US and allies deepen semiconductor and critical-mineral partnerships to reduce China dependency. No kinetic escalation is evident, but the escalation score of 100/100 reflects a structurally hardened decoupling trajectory with diminishing off-ramps.
Key D
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 14 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off GB as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
