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US-China conflict.

Critical · 100/100Cold Warfrozen28,403 dispatches indexedlatest event Nov 13, 2026
51 sources·generated Aug 27, 2026·ICD 203?ICD 203 — Analytic TradecraftThe US Intelligence Community’s Intelligence Community Directive 203 standards: sourced claims, calibrated probability language, explicit confidence levels, alternative analysis. GeoMemo briefs follow this prompt.
Escalation
100
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-6 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
8
▲+7 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
China, North Korea & Russia Alliance
China
Active support
US & Indo-Pacific Allies
United States
Active support
Other principal actors
MexicoJapanBrazil
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
11,612
total events across belligerents · 95 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
AIRSTRIKE2026-06-012026-07-182026-11-13
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
562
12 China, North Korea & Russia Alliance · 550 US & Indo-Pacific Allies
China, North Korea & Russia AllianceUS & Indo-Pacific Allies
2026-06-012026-08-24161
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Market signal · USD/CNY
—
· live data pending
Trade war currency dynamics
Other watched market signals · 3 additional
SHCOMP000001.SS
Shanghai Composite — Chinese market sentiment
Semiconductor ETFSOXX
Chip export control impact
Rare Earth ETFREMX
Critical mineral supply chain risk

Bottom Line

We assess with moderate confidence that the US-China cold conflict remains at peak escalation (100/100), driven by converging diplomatic friction over a new South China Sea military base, divergent sanctions postures on Iran, and intensifying technology competition — though a planned September presidential summit signals both sides retain off-ramps.

Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)

  • Aug 27 — China's Foreign Minister called on the US and China to "overcome obstacl
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0Aug 15Hiroshima BombingJP
10.0Aug 121876 Drought in Qing ChinaCN
10.0Aug 11Hiroshima Atomic BombingJP
10.0Aug 9Nagasaki BombingJP
10.0Aug 8US bombs HiroshimaJP
10.0Aug 6First atomic bombJP
10.0Aug 6Atomic BombingJP
10.0Aug 6Japan's Formal SurrenderJP
9.0Aug 26Gyirong FloodCN
9.0Aug 18China-Taiwan TensionCN
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Aug 26CN→USWi-fi patentstech transfercontracted
Aug 6CN→USdrones and related technologiescritical tech transferannounced
Jul 24CN→rare-earth permanent magnets, dysprosium, terbiumcritical tech transferannounced
Jul 20FR→CNAirbus aircraft· qty 95arms salecontracted
Jul 17CN→ai_system· qty 5000trainingproposed
Jul 17CN→AI training opportunities· qty 5000trainingproposed
Jul 17CN→MAZU meteorological early warning systemtech transferproposed
Jul 17CN→MAZU meteorological early warning systemtech transferproposed
Jul 14IN→CNClopidogrel Bisulfate APIcritical tech transferannounced
Jul 13CN→heliumcritical tech transferannounced
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Neodymium-PraseodymiumChinaprocessing—100.0%
Natural GraphiteChinarefining—100.0%
Cobalt, CopperChinaprocessing—100.0%
PhosphateChinaprocessing—100.0%
TitaniumJapanrefining—100.0%
Lithium iron phosphate (LFP)Chinaprocessing—99.0%
Gallium metalChinaprocessing—99.0%
Heavy Rare EarthsChinaprocessing—99.0%
Dysprosium and TerbiumChinaprocessing—99.0%
GalliumChinaprocessing—99.0%
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to Argentina · 2 active
economic
Rare earth supply disruption
57%▼ 0.8pp
7-day Bayesian update
conflict
China-Taiwan military action
42%▲ 5.2pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 51 dispatches across 35 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off AR as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.

Sources· 51 dispatches· 35 publications
  1. 1.The Debrief — British Security Coordination and the Limits of Allied Persuasion: How Foreign Partners Can Shape Strategy Through Clandestine Action - The Debrief
  2. 2.Protothema — Μαύρη Θάλασσα: Drone έπληξε containership της MSC, «παγώνουν» τα φορτία από και προς το Νοβοροσίσκ
  3. 3.Al Jazeera — OpenAI says it detected malign activity months before Hugging Face attack
  4. 4.madhyamamonline — Trump says Iran conflict could end soon, claims Khamenei sustained severe injuries - madhyamamonline.com
  5. 5.The Hindu — Trump says he believes Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei still alive
  6. 6.The Independent — Chinese foreign minister calls for US and China to 'overcome obstacles' ahead of presidential summit
  7. 7.The Independent — Iran-US war latest: Trump says Hormuz is a ‘very functioning Strait despite the odd rocket or drone’ in bizarre rant
  8. 8.Moneycontrol — Hillary Clinton says India and China could help Trump end US-Iran conflict through economic and diplomatic... - Moneycontrol.com
  9. 9.uk — Donald Trump Mocked Online For Declaring 'Mission Accomplished' In Iran
  10. 10.Tuoi Tre — Mỹ tạm dừng cấp thị thực định cư toàn cầu: Cú sốc chính sách và hệ lụy kinh tế
  11. 11.City AM — FTSE 100 Live: Stocks drop; Nvidia sales double as AI boom continues
  12. 12.The Independent — Trump plan could redefine $1 billion companies as ‘small businesses’
  13. 13.Hindustan Times — US religious freedom panel calls on govt to revoke RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's visa ahead of NYC event
  14. 14.South China Morning Post — Global US immigrant visa pause: the fallout across China, Asia and Hong Kong
  15. 15.Gulf News — Trump spoke with Pakistan Army Chief Munir last week ahead of Tehran visit: Report
  16. 16.Al Jazeera — US plans to revoke business, tourism visas of 200,000 asylum seekers
  17. 17.Gulf News — Trump, Ontario Premier Ford trade insults after Canada-US talks collapse
  18. 18.La Jornada — Para tomar en cuenta
  19. 19.The Crescent-News — Arthur Cyr - How serious our North Korea threats? - The Crescent-News
  20. 20.The Independent — The world inches toward catastrophic climate events: 'Bigger shocks are on the way'
  21. 21.The Age - Latest News — There’s good news about America’s fentanyl crisis – but it’s not the full story
  22. 22.The Independent — The desperate race to contain Ebola in DR Congo as deadly outbreak reaches 100 days
  23. 23.California — David Cannom, pioneering L.A. cardiologist, dies at 86
  24. 24.Washington Times — New archivist says Equal Rights Amendment is still dead
  25. 25.The Vibes — US threatens Iran with ‘greatest financial offensive’ - The Vibes
  26. 26.Sydney Morning Herald - World — How is Trump weakening American power? Let me count the ways
  27. 27.Washington Times — A moderate earthquake shakes Japan, injuring more than 30 people in the Tokyo region
  28. 28.The Independent — Magnitude 5.9 earthquake strikes Japan’s Tokyo region injuring at least 37
  29. 29.Foreign Policy — Washington Is Creating Forever Enemies - Foreign Policy
  30. 30.Saudi Gazette — Foreign tourist injured in bear attack at popular Japan tourist spot
  31. 31.The Tribune-Democrat — U.S. strikes a vessel in eastern Pacific, killing 2 people in first attack in months - The Tribune-Democrat
  32. 32.Vox — America’s murder rate hasn’t been this low in 70 years
  33. 33.Gulf News — Japan earthquake: Magnitude 6.0 quake hits Hokkaido after 5.9 tremor injures 40
  34. 34.Finimize — Nvidia’s AI Outlook Pushed China’s Hardware Stocks Higher - Finimize
  35. 35.Renew Economy — The deadly disease blinding the West to who is winning the energy transition - Renew Economy
  36. 36.South China Morning Post — China’s Akeso says cancer drug beat AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi in phase 3 trial
  37. 37.South China Morning Post — Chip sell-off helps boost China’s private funds as US$83.3b is pulled out of mutual funds
  38. 38.Perfil — El ministro de Economía de Uruguay pidió cuidar las cuentas públicas para no terminar como Argentina y cuestionó duramente a Milei
  39. 39.The Independent — Asian stocks are mixed after Wall Street losses following economic updates
  40. 40.China Economic Review — COMMODITIES REVIEW: weak property but strong manufacturing
  41. 41.Arabian Post — Trump’s high-tariff regime revives Japanese investment in India
  42. 42.Gulf News — Iran's Ghalibaf welcomes China’s rejection of new US sanctions, Pezeshkian says US economic pressure would 'fail'
  43. 43.Washington Times — State blasts China for building new military base on disputed reef
  44. 44.To Vima — Τσιπ της Nvidia σε ρωσικά drone «δολοφόνους» – Το «κενό» ελέγχου και οι αυτόνομοι εκτελεστές AI
  45. 45.Tehran Times — China’s economic soft power in the age of connectivity
  46. 46.Die Zeit — USA: Trump will mehr Rindfleisch importieren lassen
  47. 47.ANTARA News - Latest Indonesia News — Hong Kong strengthens position as Asia's leading sustainable fashion hub
  48. 48.VnExpress English — International students contribute $5B annually as Malaysia climbs global education rankings
  49. 49.South China Morning Post — Is ‘resource curse’ to blame in regions hit harder by Xi’s anti-corruption campaign?
  50. 50.CGTN — Chinese envoy urges cessation of hostilities to ensure food production
  51. 51.CGTN — Wang Yi said China-Uzbekistan relations achieve leapfrog development