GeoMemo
WED, MAY 13 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Dagestan drone attacks.

Critical · 93/100Insurgencyactive1,678 dispatches indexedlatest event May 11, 2026
Escalation
93
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
36
▼-27 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
70,084
▲+69,812 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
Russia
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
3,161
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
RUSSIAN ARMY2026-02-122026-03-292026-05-13
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
223,121
single-side data only
2026-02-092026-05-1176,044
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · EUR/RUB
—
RUB · live data pending
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0May 11Russian Army EnlistsRU
10.0May 9Russia-Ukraine WarRU
10.0May 8Russian InvasionRU
10.0May 6Battle of StalingradoRU
10.0May 6Siege of LeningradoRU
10.0May 6Russia Withdraws from MoratoriumRU
10.0May 5Russia Invades UkraineRU
10.0May 4Russia-Ukraine WarRU
10.0May 4Russia Invades UkraineRU
10.0May 3Russian LossesRU
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Apr 17RU→Russian oilarms saleproposed
Apr 17RU→TRAkkuyu reactorcritical tech transferdelivered
Apr 17KP→RUmissilearms saledelivered
Apr 17RU→IRmissilearms saleproposed
Apr 17CN→RUdual-use goodscritical tech transferdelivered
Apr 17RU→CNgoldcritical tech transferdelivered
Apr 16RU→KPelectronic warfare systems and radio disturbance equipmentcritical tech transferdelivered
Apr 16RU→Su-57Earms saleproposed
Apr 16RU→TRS-400 missile defence systemarms saledelivered
Apr 16RU→Su-57Earms saleproposed
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Palladium· Arctic facilitiesRussiamining—36.0%
PalladiumRussiamining—36.0%
Nickel· Sulphide oresRussiarefining—3.3%
NickelRussiarefining—3.3%
Rare EarthsRussiaprocessing—1.0%
AntimonyRussiamining—0.0%
PlatinumRussiamining—0.0%
TungstenRussiamining—0.0%
Copper· Udokan Copper Mining and Metallurgical PlantRussiarefining——
GoldRussiamining——
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to Russia · 1 active
conflict
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
34%▲ 18.8pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off RU as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.