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Papua conflict.

Critical · 100/100Civil Waractive1,510 dispatches indexedlatest event May 12, 2026

38 sources·generated May 12, 2026·ICD 203?

Escalation

100

·Critical · /100

Events · 24h

▼-15 vs 7d avg

Fatalities · 7d

▲+9 vs prior 7d

Media divergence

—

·Divergence

Primary belligerent

Indonesia

Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread

2,925

total events across belligerents · 90 daily data points

Annotated milestones

2 of 4

Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone

Fatalities · 90 days · weekly

167

single-side data only

Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks

Bottom Line

We assess with moderate confidence that the Papua conflict has reached a critical escalation threshold, with at least 20 killed in recent violence including the targeted killing of two pilots at a remote airstrip in Papua Selatan, while Indonesia simultaneously faces compounding economic pressures from the US-Iran war that may constrain Jakarta's capacity to sustain counterinsurgency operations.

Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)

May 11 — Conflict escalation across Pa

Top 10

High-severity events

Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days

SeverityDateEventCountries

9.0Apr 20Phishing operation causes financial damageID

9.0Apr 17Attempted murder of Andrie YunusID

8.0May 14Oil Price DisruptionID

8.0May 13Indonesia Fishing VesselID

8.0May 12Indonesia-Singapore Clean Power DealID

8.0May 11Hantavirus outbreakID

8.0May 11Floods in SumatraID

8.0May 11Papua ConflictID

8.0May 11Volcano EruptsID

8.0May 10Indonesia HeatwaveID

Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access

Top 10

Strategic transfers

Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent

DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus

May 6TR→IDKızılelma· qty 12arms salecontracted

Apr 19ID→AUCartridged Emulsion Explosives· qty 250arms saledelivered

Apr 16FR→IDRafale jets· qty 42arms salecontracted

Apr 15RU→IDSu-35arms saleproposed

Apr 14GB→IDsubmarine rescue systemarms salecontracted

Apr 14RU→IDcrude oil· qty 150000000arms salecontracted

Apr 11US→IDUS-made maritime surveillance dronesarms saleproposed

Apr 10FR→IDAirbus A400Marms saleproposed

Apr 10FR→IDA400Marms saleproposed

Apr 10JP→IDMogami-class frigate· qty 4arms saleproposed

Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access

Top 10

Critical resource flows

Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities

MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %

NickelIndonesiarefining—75.0%

Nickel· IndonesiaIndonesiarefining—75.0%

Nickel· Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP)Indonesiarefining—75.0%

Nickel· Laterite nickel depositsIndonesiarefining—75.0%

Nickel· Laterite nickel oreIndonesiarefining—75.0%

Nickel· SorowakoIndonesiarefining—75.0%

Nickel· SulawesiIndonesiarefining—75.0%

Nickel· Weda Bay mineIndonesiarefining—75.0%

Graphite (Natural)Indonesiarefining—6.3%

CoalIndonesiamining—0.0%

Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact

No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.

Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 38 dispatches across 25 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off ID as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.

Sources· 38 dispatches· 25 publications