GeoMemo
TUE, JUN 9 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Sino-Tibetan conflict.

Cold · 0/100Civil Warfrozen4 dispatches indexed
Escalation
0
·Stable · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-51 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
13
▼-33 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
China
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
6,541
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
4 of 4
WAR CRIMECHINESE CIVILCOVID-19 PANDETIANANMEN SQUA2026-03-112026-04-262026-09-28
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
72
single-side data only
2026-03-092026-06-0847
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · USD/CNY
—
CNY · live data pending
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0Jun 4Tiananmen Square massacreCN
10.0May 12COVID-19 pandemicCN
9.0Jun 9China Undercuts Int'l EffortsCN
9.0Jun 8China Nuclear ExpansionCN
9.0Jun 8China's Taiwan Invasion PlansCN
9.0Jun 7South China Sea DisputeCN
9.0Jun 4Strait of Hormuz BlockadeCN
9.0Jun 1Tiananmen Square massacreCN
9.0May 28Nuclear Arms RaceCN
9.0May 21China's Lithium Market ControlCN
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
May 15US→CNNvidia H200 chipcritical tech transferannounced
May 15US→CNNvidia second-most advanced chipcritical tech transfercontracted
May 11→CNEwoyaa Lithium Projectarms saleannounced
May 11→CNEwoyaa Lithium Projectarms saleannounced
May 11AU→CNEwoyaa Lithium Projectcritical tech transferannounced
May 8US→CNNvidia AI serverscritical tech transferproposed
Apr 29US→CNsemiconductorcritical tech transferannounced
Apr 29US→CNsemiconductorcritical tech transferannounced
Apr 24CN→dual-use itemscritical tech transferannounced
Apr 24CN→dual-use itemscritical tech transferannounced
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
HolmiumChinarefining—100.0%
Terbium· GanzhouChinarefining—100.0%
Rare EarthsChinarefining—100.0%
Rare Earths· Baotou Steel GroupChinarefining—100.0%
Rare Earths· GanzhouChinarefining—100.0%
Germanium· Yunnan Lincang XinyuanChinaprocessing—100.0%
Terbium· Bayan-OboChinarefining—100.0%
GalliumChinaprocessing—100.0%
LutetiumChinarefining—100.0%
Rare Earths· China Northern Rare Earth GroupChinarefining—100.0%
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to China · 2 active
conflict
China-Taiwan military action
70%▼ 5.5pp
7-day Bayesian update
economic
Rare earth supply disruption
29%▼ 4.5pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off CN as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.