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Brief›Conflicts

Sino-Tibetan conflict.

Critical · 89/100Civil Warfrozen2,165 dispatches indexedlatest event Sep 28, 2026
Escalation
89
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-17 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
28
▼-133 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Side A
China
Side B
Japan
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
5,532
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
AIRSTRIKE2026-05-312026-07-162026-09-28
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
649
550 China · 99 Japan
ChinaJapan
2026-06-012026-08-24174
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Market signal · USD/CNY
—
CNY · live data pending
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0Aug 15Hiroshima BombingJP
10.0Aug 121876 Drought in Qing ChinaCN
10.0Aug 11Hiroshima Atomic BombingJP
10.0Aug 9Nagasaki BombingJP
10.0Aug 8US bombs HiroshimaJP
10.0Aug 6Japan's Formal SurrenderJP
10.0Aug 6First atomic bombJP
10.0Aug 6Atomic BombingJP
9.0Aug 26Gyirong FloodCN
9.0Aug 18China-Taiwan TensionCN
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Aug 26CN→USWi-fi patentstech transfercontracted
Aug 6CN→USdrones and related technologiescritical tech transferannounced
Jul 24CN→rare-earth permanent magnets, dysprosium, terbiumcritical tech transferannounced
Jul 20FR→CNAirbus aircraft· qty 95arms salecontracted
Jul 17CN→AI training opportunities· qty 5000trainingproposed
Jul 17CN→ai_system· qty 5000trainingproposed
Jul 17CN→MAZU meteorological early warning systemtech transferproposed
Jul 17CN→MAZU meteorological early warning systemtech transferproposed
Jul 14IN→CNClopidogrel Bisulfate APIcritical tech transferannounced
Jul 13CN→heliumcritical tech transferannounced
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Neodymium-PraseodymiumChinaprocessing—100.0%
Natural GraphiteChinarefining—100.0%
Cobalt, CopperChinaprocessing—100.0%
TitaniumJapanrefining—100.0%
PhosphateChinaprocessing—100.0%
Heavy Rare EarthsChinaprocessing—99.0%
Gallium metalChinaprocessing—99.0%
Lithium iron phosphate (LFP)Chinaprocessing—99.0%
Dysprosium and TerbiumChinaprocessing—99.0%
GalliumChinaprocessing—99.0%
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to China · 2 active
economic
Rare earth supply disruption
59%▼ 1.6pp
7-day Bayesian update
conflict
China-Taiwan military action
36%▼ 2.6pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off CN as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.