Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
70
total events across belligerents · 28 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
616
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that there is no active or emerging religious conflict in Chad identifiable from available reporting. The evidence pack contains zero articles addressing intra-Chad religious tensions; all sourced material pertains to the neighboring Sudan civil war, now entering its fourth year. The escalation score of 0/100 is consistent with the absence of reportable events.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Apr 15 — France 24 reports Suda
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 3 dispatches across 3 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off TD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
