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FRI, MAY 15 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Israel-Hamas war.

Critical · 100/100Civil Warfrozen27,574 dispatches indexedlatest event May 12, 2026
Escalation
100
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-133 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
965
▼-385 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Israel
Israel
Hamas & Regional Actors
Azerbaijan
Other principal actors
SyriaSpainNorth Korea
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
8,120
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
2026-02-142026-03-312026-05-15
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
13,999
13,876 Israel · 123 Hamas & Regional Actors
IsraelHamas & Regional Actors
2026-02-092026-05-114,784
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Brent crude
—
USD/bbl · live data pending
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0May 14Russian Airstrikes in SyriaSY
10.0May 14Bombings of CitiesSY
10.0May 14Torture of French CitizensSY
10.0May 14Syrian Air Force War CrimesSY
10.0May 14Earthquake in SyriaSY
10.0May 14Syrian Army War CrimesSY
10.0May 14Assad regime hides chemSY
10.0May 14Syrian WarSY
10.0May 14Syrian Women PrisonersSY
10.0May 13Israel Offensive on GazaIL
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
May 6TR→IDKızılelma· qty 12arms salecontracted
Apr 17US→ILair-to-air missilesarms salecontracted
Apr 17KP→cyber_systemintelligence sharingannounced
Apr 17RU→TRAkkuyu reactorcritical tech transferdelivered
Apr 17KP→RUmissilearms saledelivered
Apr 17KR→TRK9 self-propelled howitzerarms saledelivered
Apr 17TR→SDTurkish-made dronesarms saleannounced
Apr 17ES→UAmunitionsarms salecontracted
Apr 17TR→UABayraktar dronesarms saledelivered
Apr 16US→ILbulldozersarms saleproposed
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
BoronTurkeymining—70.0%
Lithium· San JoséSpainmanufacturing—0.0%
TungstenNorth Koreamining—0.0%
BoratesTurkeymining——
LithiumIsraelprocessing——
LithiumTurkeymanufacturing——
NeodymiumSpainprocessing——
Niobium· Penouta mineSpainmining——
PraseodymiumSpainprocessing——
Rare Earth Elements· BeylikovaTurkeymining——
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to Israel · 2 active
conflict
Middle East regional war expansion
79%▲ 22.3pp
7-day Bayesian update
nuclear
North Korea provocations
70%▲ 2.7pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off IL as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.