Geopolitical Politics
Guinea-Bissau votes on a stronger presidency: What’s at stake?
Guinea-Bissau voters decide on a new constitution that strengthens the presidency.
Al JazeeraGuinea-Bissau · Portugal · Senegal
Daily briefOperational risk · 90d →
Guinea.
Republic of Guinea · Conakry · 14.4M people · africa
Governmentpresidential republicArea245.9K km²Sanctioned entities15Active conflicts3Mentions 7d3CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
79.2
Elevated risk
31-day trend
Intelligence briefNo brief published today
Daily intelligence brief is generated for the highest-activity countries. Guinea becomes eligible as dispatch volume climbs.
Guinea · 90-day event volume
20
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 11
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
40/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 1domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 100
Event Volatility
99/100 · 15% wt
target events: 1actor only events: 0domestic events: 0severe domestic: 0instability rate: 0.50%article coverage 90d: 184
Arms Activity
100/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 0total value usd: $0conflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
81/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: 5.35%inflation pct: 8.12%unemployment pct: 5.13%
Market Stress
92/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 13negative signals 30d: 1
Sanctions Exposure
97/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 15is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
36/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 60.9literacy rate: 39.60%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political65Elevated
Security30Moderate
Economic14Stable
Regulatory3Stable
Operational23Stable
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · Africa
Rank 30 of 56
0134.8
0241.8
0344.0
0444.8
0548.3
0651.2
0758.4
0858.8
3079.2
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 15 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024$25.0B
▲ $2.6B YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024$1.7K
▲ $139 YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 20248.1%
▲ 0.3% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 20245.1%
▼ 0.0% YoY
Population
WB· 202414.8M
▲ 349.3K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 20242.05%
▼ 0.08% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 202460.9 yrs
▲ 0.2 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 202433.3%
▲ 1.0% YoY
Security11 recent events · 3 conflicts · 0 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
20
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
0
High-severity events
2026-08-23
Landfill collapse
Humanitarian Aid
2026-08-23
Landfill Collapse
Humanitarian Aid
2026-08-23
Landslide at Guinea landfill
Humanitarian Aid
2026-08-14
Guinea border tensions
Border Incursion
2026-08-14
Guinea border dispute
Diplomatic Tension
2026-08-14
ECOWAS mediation
Diplomatic Visit
2026-08-12
Local Processing
Economic Indicator
2026-08-08
Guinea Glencore Bauxite Deal
Trade Deal
Active conflicts involving Guinea
Boko Haram insurgency
Insurgency · 22903 dispatches
Critical · 100
Guinea-Liberia-Sierra Leone border conflict
· 22 dispatches
Low · 20.5
Guinea conflicts
Civil War · 2 dispatches
Cold · 0
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo spreads to 2 new health zones with a total of 60 areas now affected
Washington Times
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
Fararen hula sun bukaci a yi sahihin bincike kan kabarin bai ɗaya da aka gano a Guinea
© RFI carte archive
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
Congo begins Ebola vaccination drive to fight most-deadly outbreak on record
The Independent
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
Congo begins Ebola vaccinations to fight country's worst outbreak on record, health minister says
The Hindu
Mauritania intercepts migrant boat carrying 161, including 17 children
Saudi Gazette
Congo begins Ebola vaccinations to fight country's worst outbreak on record, health minister says
Washington Times
Congo begins Ebola vaccinations to fight country’s worst outbreak on record, health minister says
The Independent
Interpol ta kama ƴan damfara kusan 60 a sassan yammacin Afrika
© AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani, File
Doumbouya ya kori sojojin Guinea 170 saboda tserewa daga bakin aiki
RFI
Think tanks · this country1 article from research institutions tracking Guinea
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Guinea-tagged articles · last 30 days
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
Related
+Methodology · how this profile is built
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Guinea will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.