GeoMemo
WED, MAY 13 · EDT
CountriesGuatemala (GT)

Guatemala.

Republic of Guatemala · Guatemala City · 18.3M people · central-america-n-caribbean

Governmentpresidential republicLanguagesSpanish (official) 69.9%, Maya languages 29.7% (Q'eqchi' 8.3%, K'iche 7.8%Area108.9K km²Sanctioned entities103Active conflicts2Mentions 7d2CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.

Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
83.8
Moderate risk
27-day trend
Intelligence briefNo brief published today
Daily intelligence brief is generated for the highest-activity countries. Guatemala becomes eligible as dispatch volume climbs.
Guatemala · 90-day event volume
20
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
4 of 12
FLOODFLOODVOLCANO ERUPTIMACRI-GUATEMAL2026-02-132026-03-302026-05-13
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Event timelineLast 7 days · 1 milestone · hover for context
MAY 10
2026
Macri-Guatemala Negotiation
diplomatic_tension · severity 2
Moderate
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
40/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 1domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 100
Event Volatility
94/100 · 15% wt
target events: 1actor only events: 1domestic events: 0severe domestic: 1instability rate: 0.80%article coverage 90d: 155
Arms Activity
100/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 0total value usd: $0conflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
85/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: 3.65%inflation pct: 2.87%unemployment pct: 2.61%
Market Stress
100/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 1negative signals 30d: 0
Sanctions Exposure
79/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 103is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
75/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 72.7literacy rate: 82.10%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political
25Stable
Security
32Moderate
Economic
9Stable
Regulatory
21Stable
Operational
27Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Open the 90-day operational risk view →
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · central-america-n-caribbean
Rank 6 of 33
01Republic of Cuba
43.2
02Republic of Haiti
54.6
03Republic of Panama
67.0
04Barbados
72.2
05Republic of Honduras
77.8
06Republic of Guatemala· this country
83.8
07Virgin Islands
84.6
08Country of Sint Maarten
86.7
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 18 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024
$113.2B
$8.8B YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024
$6.2K
$392 YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 2024
2.9%
3.3% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 2024
2.6%
0.3% YoY
Population
WB· 2024
18.4M
281.5K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 2024
0.37%
0.05% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 2024
72.7 yrs
0.1 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 2024
60.2%
3.5% YoY
Security12 recent events · 2 conflicts · 0 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
20
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
2
High-severity events
2026-05-10
SEV 2
Macri-Guatemala Negotiation
Diplomatic Tension
2026-04-25
SEV 8
Volcano eruption in Santiaguito, Guatemala
Volcanic Eruption
2026-04-23
SEV 6
Measles Epidemic in Guatemala
Disease Outbreak
2026-04-23
SEV 5
Measles outbreak in Guatemala
Disease Outbreak
2026-04-21
SEV 6
Santiaguito Volcano eruption
Volcanic Eruption
2026-04-15
SEV 8
Tropical Storm Amanda and Hurricanes Eta and Iota
Flood
2026-04-15
SEV 6
Prolonged Droughts in Guatemala
Drought
2026-04-15
SEV 7
Climate-Induced Migration to the United States
Refugee Flow
Active conflicts involving Guatemala
El Salvador-Guatemala-Honduras conflict
Civil War · 31 dispatches
Critical · 100
Guatemalan Civil War
Civil War · 2 dispatches
Cold · 0
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Geopolitical Economics

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Trump-allied Latin American leaders including Argentina's Milei, Ecuador's Noboa, and El Salvador's Bukele face elevated investor risk premiums despite Washington alignment, as markets prioritize debt, inflation, and institutional stability over political ideology.

InklArgentina · Venezuela · Ecuador
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
U.S. citizen from hantavirus ship tests positive
National Post
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
Hantavirus: otros dos pasajeros del crucero dieron positivo y un tercero presenta síntomas leves
Perfil
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
En tres meses, el INM asistió a mil 255 niños extranjeros
La Jornada
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
Plane carrying 22 UK citizens evacuated from hantavirus-hit ship lands in Manchester
Times of India
Plane with hantavirus evacuees lands in Netherlands as quarantine begins
Gulf News
Hantavirus-hit cruise ship reaches Spain as global evacuation begins
Saudi Gazette
Córdoba, capital de los robots y los drones
Perfil
Honduras reviews China deals and Taiwan relations
Taipei Times
How a 3,400-year-old ballgame survives in Mexico against all odds
Washington Times
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Guatemala-tagged articles · last 30 days
Ricardo Arjona
personlast · May 11
30
Bernardo Arévalo
personlast · May 9
10
Jacobo Árbenz
personlast · May 1
7
Walter López
personlast · May 4
6
Herberth Maldonado
personlast · May 11
3
Jose Rubén Zamora
personlast · May 11
3
Doña Paulina Ixpatá Alvarado
personlast · May 11
3
Jaime Augusto Barrientos Camaz
personlast · May 10
3
Sergio Gil
personlast · May 8
3
Regina José Galindo
personlast · May 4
3
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
Related
+Methodology · how this profile is built

This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.

Coverage of Guatemala will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.