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MON, OCT 19 · EDT
Countries›Guinea-Bissau (GW)

Guinea-Bissau.

Republic of Guinea-Bissau · Bissau · 2.1M people · africa

Governmentsemi-presidential republicArea36.1K km²Sanctioned entities21Active conflicts2CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.

Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
79.5
Elevated risk
30-day trend
Intelligence briefNo brief published today
Daily intelligence brief is generated for the highest-activity countries. Guinea-Bissau becomes eligible as dispatch volume climbs.
Guinea-Bissau · 90-day event volume
1
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 1
ECOWAS AND2026-07-222026-09-052026-10-19
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
40/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 1domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 100
Event Volatility
99/100 · 15% wt
target events: 2actor only events: 0domestic events: 0severe domestic: 0instability rate: 0.50%article coverage 90d: 436
Arms Activity
100/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 0total value usd: $0conflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
85/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: 4.41%inflation pct: 3.77%unemployment pct: 2.65%
Market Stress
50/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 0negative signals 30d: 0
Sanctions Exposure
96/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 21is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
54/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 64.3literacy rate: 63.90%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political
46Moderate
Security
30Moderate
Economic
29Moderate
Regulatory
4Stable
Operational
32Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Open the 90-day operational risk view →
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · Africa
Rank 22 of 56
01Republic of the Sudan
39.5
02Federal Republic of Nigeria
43.8
03Federal Republic of Somalia
45.5
04Republic of South Sudan
50.7
05Arab Republic of Egypt
50.8
06Democratic Republic of the Congo
53.5
07State of Libya
54.5
08Republic of South Africa
60.2
22Republic of Guinea-Bissau· this country
79.5
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 17 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024
$2.2B
▲ $121.0M YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024
$998
▲ $34 YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 2024
3.8%
▼ 3.3% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 2024
2.6%
▲ 0.0% YoY
Population
WB· 2024
2.2M
▲ 48.0K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 2024
1.04%
▲ 0.15% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 2024
64.3 yrs
▲ 0.2 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 2024
29.8%
▲ 1.1% YoY
Security1 recent events · 2 conflicts · 0 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
1
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
0
High-severity events
2026-10-04
SEV 4
ECOWAS and Guinea-Bissau
Diplomatic Tension
Active conflicts involving Guinea-Bissau
Boko Haram insurgency
Insurgency · 23007 dispatches
Critical · 100
Guinea-Bissau civil unrest
Civil War · 5 dispatches
Low · 1.4
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
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BG RSS Free
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Eutoday
Guinea-Bissau junta head fires officer close to former president Embaló
Africanews
WAPP plans second phase of regional electricity market
Punch Newspapers - Latest News
Think tanks · this country1 article from research institutions tracking Guinea-Bissau
Brookings
How Africa can benefit from the global mineral rush
African nations including Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Namibia are pursuing local mineral processing and value-added manufacturing to capitalize on surging global demand for lithium, cobalt, and other critical minerals, though financing gaps and governance challenges limit their revenue capture potential.
Jun 4, 2026
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Guinea-Bissau-tagged articles · last 30 days
Umaro Sissoco Embalo
personlast · Oct 10
12
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
personlast · Oct 3
9
Horta N’Tam
personlast · Oct 10
2
Bassirou Sadio
personlast · Sep 29
2
General Horta N’Tam
personlast · Sep 29
2
Malam Cisse
personlast · Sep 29
2
Felisberta Moura Vaz
personlast · Oct 10
1
Ilídio Vieira Té
personlast · Oct 10
1
Aristide Gomez
personlast · Oct 5
1
Embalo Cissoco
personlast · Oct 5
1
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
Related
+Methodology · how this profile is built

This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.

Coverage of Guinea-Bissau will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.