GeoMemo
WED, MAY 13 · EDT
CountriesTimor-Leste (TL)

Timor-Leste.

Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste · Dili · 1.4M people · east-n-southeast-asia

Governmentsemi-presidential republicArea14.9K km²Active conflicts2Mentions 7d3CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.

Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
83.7
Moderate risk
26-day trend
Intelligence briefNo brief published today
Daily intelligence brief is generated for the highest-activity countries. Timor-Leste becomes eligible as dispatch volume climbs.
Timor-Leste · 90-day event volume
9
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 9
FAMINE WARNING1999 TIMOR-LESASEAN INTEGRAT2026-02-122026-03-292026-05-12
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Event timelineLast 7 days · 2 milestones · hover for context
MAY 8
2026
ASEAN Integration
diplomatic_visit · severity 4
Moderate
MAY 8
2026
Timor-Leste integration
diplomatic_visit · severity 4
Moderate
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
100/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 0domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 0
Event Volatility
97/100 · 15% wt
target events: 1actor only events: 1domestic events: 0severe domestic: 0instability rate: 1.60%article coverage 90d: 80
Arms Activity
100/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 0total value usd: $0conflict amplified: no
Economic Health
65/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: -9.10%inflation pct: 2.06%unemployment pct: 1.52%
Market Stress
50/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 0negative signals 30d: 0
Sanctions Exposure
100/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 0is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
62/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 67.9literacy rate: 69.40%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political
38Moderate
Security
1Stable
Economic
41Moderate
Regulatory
0Stable
Operational
11Stable
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Open the 90-day operational risk view →
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · east-n-southeast-asia
Rank 10 of 22
01Taiwan
51.0
02Union of Burma
52.3
03People's Republic of China
55.8
04Democratic People's Republic of Korea
58.2
05Republic of Indonesia
63.6
06Japan
64.1
07Republic of the Philippines
65.4
08Republic of Korea
66.9
10Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste· this country
68.8
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 16 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024
$1.9B
$214.2M YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024
$1.3K
$170 YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 2024
2.1%
6.4% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 2024
1.5%
0.0% YoY
Population
WB· 2024
1.4M
16.4K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 2024
2.66%
0.01% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 2024
67.9 yrs
0.2 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 2023
34.0%
0.5% YoY
Security9 recent events · 2 conflicts · 0 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
9
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
0
High-severity events
2026-05-08
SEV 4
ASEAN Integration
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-08
SEV 4
Timor-Leste integration
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-06
SEV 2
Asean Charter Amendment
Peace Agreement
2026-04-27
SEV 2
Kombos meets Timor-Leste minister
Diplomatic Visit
2026-04-27
SEV 3
Timor-Leste Joins ASEAN
Diplomatic Visit
2026-04-24
SEV 8
1999 Timor-Leste crisis
Ground Offensive
2026-04-21
SEV 4
Timor-Leste Opposition Questions
Political Crisis
2026-04-08
SEV 6
Timor-Leste vulnerable to foreign organized crime
Famine Warning
Active conflicts involving Timor-Leste
US-China conflict
Cold War · 26827 dispatches
Critical · 100
Timor-Leste crisis
· 1 dispatches
Cold · 0
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
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Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Timor-Leste-tagged articles · last 30 days
Xanana Gusmão
personlast · May 11
11
José Ramos-Horta
personlast · May 10
8
Xanana Gusmao
personlast · May 12
5
José Ramos Horta
personlast · May 11
3
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
personlast · May 9
3
Jose Ramos-Horta
personlast · Apr 28
3
Bendito dos Santos Freitas
personlast · May 6
2
Bendito Freitas
personlast · May 6
2
José Alexandre Gusmão
personlast · May 3
2
Francisco Kalbuadi Lay
personlast · May 7
1
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
Related
+Methodology · how this profile is built

This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.

Coverage of Timor-Leste will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.