GeoMemo
FRI, MAY 15 · EDT
CountriesEritrea (ER)

Eritrea.

State of Eritrea · Asmara · 6.4M people · africa

GovernmentauthoritarianArea117.6K km²Sanctioned entities15Active conflicts4Mentions 7d3 ▲ 0%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.

Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
72.0
Elevated risk
27-day trend
Intelligence briefNo brief published today
Daily intelligence brief is generated for the highest-activity countries. Eritrea becomes eligible as dispatch volume climbs.
Eritrea · 90-day event volume
15
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 12
US-ERITREA DIPUS-ERITREA TAL2026-02-152026-04-012026-05-15
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Event timelineLast 7 days · 3 milestones · hover for context
MAY 11
2026
Western Diplomats Visit Eritrea
diplomatic_visit · severity 3
Moderate
MAY 11
2026
Eritrea-West Relations
diplomatic_tension · severity 4
Moderate
MAY 10
2026
US-Eritrea Diplomatic Reset
diplomatic_visit · severity 5
Moderate
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
43/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 1domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 75.9
Event Volatility
96/100 · 15% wt
target events: 2actor only events: 1domestic events: 0severe domestic: 0instability rate: 1.90%article coverage 90d: 119
Arms Activity
97/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 1total value usd: $0conflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
80/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: inflation pct: unemployment pct: 5.95%
Market Stress
0/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 1negative signals 30d: 1
Sanctions Exposure
97/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 15is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
64/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 68.9literacy rate:
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political
36Moderate
Security
31Moderate
Economic
52Elevated
Regulatory
3Stable
Operational
42Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Open the 90-day operational risk view →
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · Africa
Rank 14 of 56
01Republic of the Sudan
38.8
02Federal Republic of Nigeria
42.6
03Republic of South Sudan
48.7
04Arab Republic of Egypt
48.8
05State of Libya
49.0
06Federal Republic of Somalia
58.8
07Democratic Republic of the Congo
59.6
08Western Sahara
60.7
14State of Eritrea· this country
68.8
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 7 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB
GDP per capita
WB
Inflation (CPI)
WB
Unemployment
WB· 2024
5.9%
0.0% YoY
Population
WB· 2024
3.5M
65.2K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB
Life expectancy
WB· 2024
68.9 yrs
0.3 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 2023
20.0%
1.3% YoY
Security12 recent events · 4 conflicts · 1 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
15
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
0
High-severity events
2026-05-11
SEV 3
Western Diplomats Visit Eritrea
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-11
SEV 4
Eritrea-West Relations
Diplomatic Tension
2026-05-10
SEV 5
US-Eritrea Diplomatic Reset
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-05
SEV 6
US-Eritrea Talks
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-02
SEV 4
Western Diplomats Visit Eritrea
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-02
SEV 3
Eritrea Engagement Criticized
Diplomatic Tension
2026-04-26
SEV 6
US-Eritrea Diplomatic Reset
Diplomatic Visit
2026-04-25
SEV 5
Egypt Secures Military Facilities in Eritrea and Djibouti
Military Base
Active conflicts involving Eritrea
Boko Haram insurgency
Insurgency · 22651 dispatches
Critical · 100
Sudan civil war
Civil War · 8267 dispatches
Critical · 100
Ethiopia conflict
Civil War · 751 dispatches
Critical · 75.9
Tigray conflict
Civil War · 110 dispatches
Elevated · 44.8
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis

Scandal of refugee data leak at Belgian reception center

A Belgian reception center leaked personal data of hundreds of asylum seekers, sparking controversy over weak data protection practices.

SYRIA NEWS | ZAMAN ALWSLBelgium · Syria · Palestine
Geopolitical Politics
Netherlands to prevent safe countries asylum seekers from work
SYRIA NEWS | ZAMAN ALWSL
Geopolitical Politics
The Horn of Africa: A Geostrategic Frontier for the EU
EthiopiaToday
Geopolitical Politics
The Horn of Africa: A Geostrategic Frontier for the EU
TRENDS Research & Advisory
Geopolitical Politics
ASIO is an expensive and blunt tool in combating Chinese interference
Crikey
Uganda's open-door refugee policy under strain as regional conflicts intensify
PBS
Mexican national sentenced to 11 years for armed human smuggling operation
Washington Times
A Framework for Breaking the Food–Climate–Water–Conflict Nexus in Africa
orfonline
Eritrea and the West in an Eroding Rules-Based Order
horn review
Washington’s Eritrea Reset: From Sanctioned Spoiler to Licensed Spoiler
Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA)
Think tanks · this country2 articles from research institutions tracking Eritrea
Council on Foreign Relations
Violent Extremism in the Sahel
Violent extremist groups including JNIM, ISGS, and ISWAP have expanded significantly across the Sahel region due to weakening international counterterrorism support and regional leadership, intensifying humanitarian crises and security threats to the United States and Europe.
May 2, 2026
European Council on Foreign Relations
Anatomy of a chokepoint: Mapping power and conflict in the Red Sea
Anatomy of a chokepoint: Mapping power and conflict in the Red Sea
Apr 19, 2026
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Eritrea-tagged articles · last 30 days
Isaias Afwerki
personlast · May 11
14
Osman Saleh Mohammed
personlast · May 11
9
Hagos Gebrehiwet
personlast · May 11
8
Eritrean
personlast · Apr 15
6
Nesredin Salah
personlast · May 11
5
Isaias Afewerki
personlast · May 6
4
Isaias
personlast · May 11
3
Isais Afwerki
personlast · May 10
3
Nasr El-Din Saleh
personlast · May 4
3
Yemane Gebremeskel
personlast · May 13
2
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
Related
+Methodology · how this profile is built

This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.

Coverage of Eritrea will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.